Our latest CBRN Radar (Q4 2017) found three key upcoming threats pertaining to EU security: the lowering of the nuclear threshold as states develop smaller nuclear weapons, the inadequately controlled roll-out of biotechnology tools and the lowering of the normative standards concerning the use of chemical weapons. It also features an assessment of the threat for the next five years, predicting a decrease of nuclear- and chemical stockpiles, albeit with the ongoing modernisation of nuclear arsenals.
This is part of the The Clingendael Radar Series, which is a horizon scan from the Clingendael Strategic Foresight Programme focusing on threats to EU security in the next five years. It uses various techniques ranging from the manual scanning of recent and relevant literature, conferences organised by relevant organisations, and a scan of Twitter feeds and validated expert input. We select developments based upon their novelty and potential impact on European security.