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Strategic Foresight

Reports and papers

Analyzing the Future: Our Methodology

25 Feb 2019 - 12:16
Bron: Stiller Beobachter/flickr

This report outlines the methodology used for the Strategic Monitor 2018 - 2019, comprising the methodological design and datasets with the goal of ensuring the transparency of the Monitor's findings. 

The Strategic Monitor 2018-2019 is oriented around the themes of international peace & security and societal stability. To ensure that analysis remains consistent over different reports, and to facilitate the identification of trends over time, the research design for the Annual Report is codified within a conceptual framework which will remain consistent across future iterations.

The framework applied within the Strategic Monitor 2018-2019 contains four recurring sections:

  1. Geodynamics - appraising system-level trends;
  2. Threat Environment, detailing (external) developments that have arisen and which pertain to the Netherlands’ vital national interests;
  3. Developments in the International Order, which evaluates the context within which threats and opportunities manifest; and
  4. The Position of the Netherlands and Partnerships, which operationalizes the Netherlands’ position within the international order, developments within this dimension, and which countries it partners with.

Authors Hugo van Manen, Paul Verhagen, Tim Sweijs and Danny Pronk employ a multimethod approach that draws on a wide-ranging analytical toolkit, including horizon scanning, multi-dimensional index construction, econometric analysis, structured focused comparison, trend analysis, risk assessment, and trend impact analysis. This report consists of an overview of the methodological design and rationale behind each of the hereabove outlined components of the Strategic Monitor.