In this Clingendael Report Jaïr van der Lijn presents six scenarios for Afghanistan's uncertain future after 2014, when ISAF will have left and the responsibility for the country's security will be in the hands of the ANSF.
The scenarios are built on the basis of three key uncertainties:
- Will Governance in Afghanistan become relatively strong or relatively weak (effective and legitimate)?
- Will governance in Afghanistan be heavily or mildly contested?
- Will a Taliban-style group be dominant in Afghanistan or not?