Despite diplomatic intervention in the Libyan conflict, the situation in Libya remains unresolved and ever-complex. Understanding the volatile and influx context of Libya requires constant monitoring and analysis. To that end, the Clingendael Institute presents a series of Libya CrisisAlerts. Three online Alerts in a series of four are now available.
In these CrisisAlerts Clingendael researchers Kars de Bruijne, Fransje Molenaar and Floor El Kamouni-Janssen show that one of the parties in Libya - the LNA - is gaining a favourable position that may jeopardize mediation attempts such as the one in Paris. Apart from diplomatic success, Haftar is increasingly military prone and enters new conflict areas. His opponent - Al-Serraj’ GNA - is challenged and not making military progress.
Libya’s fragmented context has allowed Libya to become the region’s main migration hub; the Islamic State and various local jihadists to gain a foothold and; tempted powers like Russia to test European unity and the Transatlantic Axis. The Clingendael researchers also state that mediation attempts aimed at removing these threats may not make Europe safer.
The alerts are based on a detailed conflict story map of Libya that provides a geographical overview of the different armed groups in the country and the violent acts they engage in. This information is then used in Alert 1 to challenge common assumptions about the Libyan conflict, and in Alert 2 for discussing the conflict’s security implications for Europe. Alert 3 explores armed coalitions in Libya, and their implications for conflict and support for local and national governance. Alert 4 (to be published) will probe into the regional and geopolitical power dynamics.