Strategy and Policy for Afghanistan

2014 A Landmark Year for Afghanistan

On 14 June, an estimated 7 million Afghans went to the ballot boxes for the second and final round of the presidential elections. In many ways these elections are a landmark for post-Taliban Afghanistan. To begin with, it is the first peaceful and democratic transition in living memory and in particular since the overthrow of the Taliban. The elections also mark the end of the Karzai era that began at the end of 2001. Even as Karzai and his team will remain close to any of the two remaining candidates, new power bases will emerge with different leaders. Furthermore, the 2014 elections are the first which are properly run by the Afghan authorities themselves, unlike the 2004 and 2009 editions. Finally, the new President heralds a new type of relationship with the international donor community, with a reduced foreign military presence and more restrictive donor investments.

Strategy and Policy for Afghanistan

In the middle of this historic period, eight senior Afghan policy officers took part in a training course in strategic policy planning at the Clingendael Academy. The aim of the training course was to provide the participants with greater knowledge of policy planning techniques, to learn from case-studies and to acquaint themselves with the different stakeholders in a policy-making process. Participants represented the Office of Administrative Affairs and Council of Ministers Secretariat, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Civil Service Commission, the Ministry of Economy and the Central Statistics Office.

In the course of two weeks, the Afghan officials interacted with public administration academics, practitioners from several Dutch ministries, members of strategic advisory councils, civil society and Dutch Parliament. The training was designed around the different phases of the policy-making process: from agenda-setting, to policy analysis, policy implementation and finally monitoring and evaluation.

Phase I: Agenda setting

When does an issue become important enough? The session on agenda-setting introduced some of the principles from public management theory. Particular attention was paid to the role of the media and of ‘focus events’. In the current reality of Afghanistan, reference was made to:

• the extensive campaign on radio, television and internet by the presidential contenders which resulted in a higher than expected turnout in both rounds;
• the takeover of larger parts of Syria and Iraq by ISIS; this could very well turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Afghanistan and prevent the international community from withdrawing;
• the hosting of this year’s World Nawroz (Persian New Year) Festival in Kabul, which gave regional cooperation with neighbouring countries Iran, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan new impetus.

Phase II: Policy analysis

Where to start if you have to develop a strategy or policy? Participants were introduced to the instrument of scenario-planning. Following a briefing on the Defence Future Studies of 2010 as well as the yearly defence planning process, the policy planners practised the different elements of scenario-planning.

In working groups, scenarios were built around two issues: (1) Afghanistan’s prospects for  economic productivity and (2) Afghanistan’s need to maintain the support of the International Community. Some key uncertainties were identified, like the donor commitments coming out of the Kabul Process (Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework), the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement and the Afghan Government’s capacity to pursue good governance and deliver adequate services.

At the Scientific Council for Government Policy, the role of the Council towards Government and Parliament was discussed at length. The phenomenon of independent advisory councils to the Government was something that attracted great attention. A learned lesson is that independent bodies at strategic level are of great use when dealing with ‘political taboo topics’ and with issues that are too big for the Government alone to handle.

Phase III: Implementation

How to implement policies? Probably the most underestimated yet most fundamental phase in a strategic policy planning process. Participants were exposed to the different schools of thought: from  top-down, to bottom-up and mixed approaches. Also, the idea of the “street-level bureaucrat” was introduced: those civil servants that have direct interaction with the citizen e.g. the policeman or health worker in the districts. In the follow-up discussion, the officials concluded that proper implementation relies on four elements: financial, human and infrastructural resources plus training and education.

Phase IV: Monitoring and Evaluation

Finally, how to measure your effectiveness as Government? And who is taking charge of what? The Afghan officials showed great interest in the role that Parliament plays in the Dutch system of governance. During a meeting with the Chief Clerk of the Foreign Affairs Committee, differences and similarities between the Dutch parliamentary system and the Afghan Presidential system were discussed.

The role of civil society was also addressed. In a meeting with OxfamNovib, reports on Education and Women in the Police were used as examples of how the relationship between civil society and the Afghan Government changed - on both sides - from conflicting to cooperative. Finally, the Evaluation Department of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs guided the officials through the fundamentals of monitoring and evaluation and discussed options to ensure follow-up of an evaluation process.

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Observations and Lessons Learned 

The two-week interactive training programme resulted in an exchange of perspectives on particular issues that Afghan civil servants struggle with on a daily basis. Below follows a summary of observations and lessons learned:

For Afghanistan

• There is need for a better and more effective governance structure, including at the level of the Cabinet’s Office. The organic law and sub-national governance policy of the Afghan Government should receive priority as it would clarify roles and responsibilities for each department;
• Effective functional agencies, like e.g. the Central Statistics Organisations, face a lack of attention by responsible Line Ministries and the Cabinet-level decision-making bodies;
• A good system of checks and balances is built effectively only when taking into account the specifics of the constitutional system, political culture and history of Afghanistan.

For Afghan Civil Service

• In the current context, the Afghan civil service is composed of a high number of political appointees in key positions. Even as this could be seen as a detrimental phenomenon, in practise an effective Government needs both parties -  civil servants and political nominees – and needs them to work well together, even if styles, motivations and aims differ;
• Designing a vision for the future and a strategy is a relatively straightforward action; however to translate these into actionable policy plans with concrete resources and realistic timelines remains a great challenge. This is particularly true for the Afghan Government which has to tackle an almost insurmountable amount of problems at the same time;
• The Afghan Civil Service is in a nascent state in terms of education, experience and capacity. In the near future, even greater focus will have to lie on the effects for the ‘street-level bureaucrat’: the agent of Government who acts on a daily basis with citizens and receives immediate feedback on Government’s actions or non-actions.

New Presidential Manifesto

• The Office of Administrative Affairs and Council of Ministers Secretariat will be in charge of formulating and executing a 100-days action plan. The Office will require much of its resources to effectively plan and executive this 100-days plan, but even more so in the follow-up when tasks have to be handed over to respective Line Ministries.

For Afghanistan-Netherlands relations

• Afghanistan wishes to continue the capacity-building relationship with the Netherlands. After more than 10 years of military and police training, attention could now shift towards building the capacity in training and education, water management, agriculture and military support;
• The training took place at a timely moment, as the Dutch Government notified their Parliament of its intention to support the NATO Resolute Support Mission. At several moments, Dutch officials expressed a commitment to support the Afghan Government in the years ahead. Also, the Clingendael Academy aims to continue its programmes in support of the Afghan diplomatic service and the management and training capacities of the Afghan civil service.

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Participants in front of Huys Clingendael, together with the Honorary Consul-General and Chargé d'Affaires of Afghanistan in The Netherlands and Clingendael staff