Stuck in the middle. The shared neighbourhood of the EU and Russia, 2000-2005

The European Union and Russia share a common neighbourhood of over sixty million people in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. In the mid-1990s politicians and analysts in the EU were only starting to consider how to deal with these 'newly independent' states. The unwanted 'spin-offs' of the USSR were treated with a mixture of pity and neglect. Insofar as there was serious debate on the future of Eastern Europe, it was dominated by two American analysts, Samuel Huntington (Clash of Civilisations?) and Zbigniew Brzezinski (Grand Chessboard). They focussed on the fault line running through Europe in this crucial geopolitical region. What has come of their visions? Have the EU and Russia managed to articulate their own answers to these grand designs? And what of the political elites stuck in-between them - have they come up with any viable projects?

This paper has two aims, the first of which is focussed on societies and states. The author presents a concise analysis of the development of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova during the first five years of the new Century, and of the problems and dangers facing them. The second aim widens that focus to the whole region and looks at foreign and international politics, particularly at the interplay of dependencies and policies of the EU and Russia towards each other and towards their shared neighbourhood. Notwithstanding diplomatic rhetoric on shared interests and common EU-Russian values and 'spaces', this interplay has become increasingly competitive. Ukraine and its Orange Revolution have been just one example of how both the EU and Russia attempt to export their own model of democracy to the countries in the region.