Research

Conflict and Fragility

Articles

The sustainability of the US military presence in East Asia

09 Jan 2012 - 11:29

Summary

The military presence of the United States in East Asia is strong, but the foundation on which it is built is narrow and inflexible. This does not necessarily mean that the US troop presence in East Asia will end any time soon. At present the foundation is sufficiently firm to support an extensive military presence, and in principle this situation could endure for a long time to come. Still, a number of observations can be made. First, having a military presence in Asia continues to be of major importance to US interests in the region. This relates in particular to the bases in Japan. In spite of the AirSea Battle concept, increased security cooperation with other regional countries and the build-up on Guam, it is unlikely that the dependence of the US military on Japan will substantially diminish in the future. Moreover, the US-Japan alliance is becoming less predictable and stable than before. Again, there is little Washington can do to reverse this trend. As a result, the foundation underneath the American military presence in East Asia is not likely to become significantly broader or more stable. Second, a major shift from Japan to Guam and sea basing would not serve US interests. This will therefore not occur, unless at some point tensions between Japan and the US would run so high that their alliance can only be salvaged by closing down most of the American military bases in Japan. Third, should the US military close major bases in Japan, in particular Kadena or Yokosuka, then the United States would lose much of its credibility as a balancer against China. Although it might still be able to provide types of security assistance to Japan that do not require such bases, other countries in the region would likely interpret this as a sign of decreased commitment or capability. This would limit the ability of Washington to influence the relations between China and these countries, and thus the US role of balancer. In other words, there is a strong need for the US to retain its major bases in Japan. Fourth, however, as China's military capabilities grow, the operational value of Kadena, Yokosuka and the other main US bases in Japan decreases. The implementation of the AirSea Battle concept might delay this process, but in the end this trend still remains. China seems poised to obtain more and more accurate means to disable or destroy US forward bases, including aircraft carriers. It will be increasingly difficult and expensive for the United States to counter these. In the long run, the US troop presence in Japan could still retain its tripwire function for the defence of Japan, but the ability of Washington to be a credible balancer in the eyes of other governments in the region will still suffer.