The authors would like to thank Artyom Shraibman, Kateryna Bornukova and Michael Kofman for both their written contributions and their participation in the scenario workshop, and Hugo Klijn and Niels Drost for their contributions to the research project.
For an example of the Clingendael scenario methodology, see Minke Meijnders, Jaïr van der Lijn and Bas van Mierlo, ‘Syria in 2019: four scenarios – Implications for policy planning’, November 2017.