This report explores the major organisational and structural changes occurring in the transition in Ethiopia, in order to elucidate the political economic changes taking place.
The Abiy administration came into office on a platform of popular dissatisfaction with EPRDF policy, but faced a party-state with EPRDF party structures deeply interwoven with state institutions.
The administration’s efforts to take control of the state led to the appointment of new officials, the implementation of organisational changes, and reforms of financing arrangements, particularly in:
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The cabinet, where the new administration has built its political base by appointing new ministers and empowering ministries controlled by allies of the PM.
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The security sector, where the administration’s reforms and the eruption of the Tigray conflict have resulted in a drastic reduction of the TPLF’s influence, but also weakened the armed forces.
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The economic sector, where the administration has sought to streamline the state’s involvement in the economy, while also weakening the structures of control relied upon by its predecessors.
Politically, Abiy’s administration attempted to move away from ethno-nationalism by (re)introducing pan-Ethiopian nationalism.
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A single multi-ethnic political party, the Prosperity Party, has brought the peripheral regions and their politicians to the center of Ethiopian politics, although ethno-nationalism remains salient and ethnically defined federal states remain.
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Reorganizations of state institutions and changes in recruitment practices are reinforcing the primacy of the state over the party.
Economically, Abiy’s administration shifted control over the economy from the party to the state.
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Conflict with the former governing party, the TPLF, has resulted in a civil war destabilising significant parts of the country and leading to vast numbers of casualties.
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Ethno-nationalist sentiments remain highly salient, especially within the ethnically defined federal states, at times in opposition to the PP’s multi-ethnic structure.
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An economic downturn and dwindling foreign currency reserves threaten continued economic growth and job creation, a key legitimating factor under the PP platform.
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Policymakers need to reevaluate their regional security and development strategy for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, because they have lost a key partner underpinning these strategies.
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Policymakers implementing economic pressure should consider the humanitarian implications, because: (a) the civil war has directly led to large-scale human suffering as a direct consequence; and (b) the indirect effects of the economic impacts have hurt the livelihoods of many individuals across the country.
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Donors need to develop a new modus operandi for Ethiopia, reflecting the country’s weakened negotiating position due to its internal fault lines and weakened legitimacy, which is allowing donors to push back on the Ethiopian state’s political usage of aid programming.
