Research

Conflict and Fragility

Conflict and Fragility

The Middle East

19 Mar 2024 - 04:27
Source: Mohmmd Abd/Wikimedia Commons
Table of contents
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Commissioned research
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Clingendael’s Middle East research program examines what kinds of political reform and renewal are possible under conditions of authoritarian governance. This matters because the conditions that gave rise to the extended ‘Arab Uprisings’ worsen while geopolitical tensions remain high. We can expect further turmoil across the Middle East region.

Background

Between 2017 and 2021, our Middle East team researched the nature and role of hybrid coercive organisations in the violent conflicts of Syria and Iraq amid geopolitical strife between Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. This mattered because such groups proliferated rapidly and because they are poorly understood. Our in-depth work on Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’abi, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, the Syrian Kurdish YPG and pro-Assad forces, like the Eagles of the Whirlwind and the Desert Hawks, can be accessed here.

In 2021/22, the Syrian war reached a stalemate, Iraq’s conflict remained a low-intensity insurgency and relations between Ankara, Tehran, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh improved. In short, violent conflict decreased and regional tensions stabilized somewhat. In reflection of such changes, we have focused our research on another area of conflict: prospects for political reform and renewal.

Given the extended protests across the Middle East between 2011-2020 and the demands expressed by millions of its citizens, it is remarkable how little political reform has taken place since. Instead, authoritarian ruling elites have largely strengthened their hold on power, blocked protests at home and abroad, and only instigated limited top-down reform. Few popular demands for a better and more meaningful life have been heeded. At the same time, the region faces mounting socio-economic problems - including poverty, inequality, corruption, energy transitions and climate change - while its new geopolitical equilibrium remains fragile. In other words, pressure mounts but safety valves are few.

But why has authoritarian entrenchment been so successful? What factors influence the supply and demand of reform under conditions of authoritarianism? And how can external actors nudge political reform and renewal along? These are some of the questions we will explore between 2022 and 2026.

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Highlights

Conflict and Fragility

The Sepah: Guardian of its self-interests since 1979

29 Jan 2024 - 11:19

Conflict and Fragility

Podcast Accents of Shi'ism

20 Dec 2023 - 14:13

Conflict and Fragility

Iranian reactions to 7/10 and the invasion of Gaza

30 Nov 2023 - 14:56

Conflict and Fragility

Scenarios for the Palestinian issue after the Gaza war

16 Nov 2023 - 16:13

Conflict and Fragility

Expert insights: Israel-Hamas war

08 Jan 2024 - 09:00

Conflict and Fragility

The New Iraqi Opposition

31 Aug 2023 - 09:47

Publications
Conflict and Fragility
Unveiling resistance: The struggle for women's rights in Iran
26 Jun 2023 - 11:43
Conflict and Fragility
Israel in 2023: the nation-state that is not, but might be
22 Jun 2023 - 10:55
Conflict and Fragility
Power & potential: The economics of Egyptian construction and ICT
25 May 2023 - 16:55
Conflict and Fragility
Dark comedy or tragedy? The dire straits of Iran's economy
24 May 2023 - 10:18
Conflict and Fragility
The crisis of representation in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
19 Apr 2023 - 16:44
Conflict and Fragility
Lost in transition: Where might Iran be heading?
23 Mar 2023 - 11:55
Conflict and Fragility
Protests in Iran in comparative perspective
08 Mar 2023 - 09:31
Conflict and Fragility
Egypt versus the IMF: Is Cairo down and out?
01 Mar 2023 - 09:14
Conflict and Fragility
Al-Sudani's first 100 days
28 Feb 2023 - 11:04
Conflict and Fragility
The Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi
06 Mar 2023 - 11:54
Conflict and Fragility
Shades of grey: The evolving links between the Houthi and Iran
11 Jan 2023 - 14:43
Conflict and Fragility
The 2022 Israeli elections: Change, but no change
18 Oct 2022 - 16:45
Conflict and Fragility
Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022
20 Jul 2022 - 10:12
Conflict and Fragility
Death of the Deal: Why Tensions Will Rise With Iran
18 Jul 2022 - 11:38
Conflict and Fragility
Iran's Increasingly Decentralized Axis of Resistance
14 Jul 2022 - 14:48
Conflict and Fragility
What bridges the Gulf and the European Union?
04 Jul 2022 - 14:32
Conflict and Fragility
A new conflict management strategy for Syria
05 Jul 2022 - 16:22
Conflict and Fragility
Tooth and Nail: Elite Resistance Against Reform in Iraq
31 May 2022 - 11:10
Conflict and Fragility
Review of UN peace operations support to security sector reform
19 May 2022 - 09:37
Conflict and Fragility
A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022
17 May 2022 - 10:41
Conflict and Fragility
Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: northern Cyprus
11 May 2022 - 15:38
Conflict and Fragility
Coercive organisations, war and state development in the Levant
29 Mar 2022 - 15:49
Conflict and Fragility
From Manama to Baghdad and Kyiv
16 Mar 2022 - 11:12
Conflict and Fragility
Turkish interventions in its near abroad: The case of KRI (Iraq)
15 Mar 2022 - 12:17
Conflict and Fragility
Evolving relations between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
10 Mar 2022 - 11:14
Conflict and Fragility
Guns, seats, and protests: Political reform in the Middle East
28 Feb 2022 - 09:42
Conflict and Fragility
Politicking in Doha
31 Jan 2022 - 15:35
Conflict and Fragility
Development, governance and conflict trends in the Middle East
31 Jan 2022 - 13:48
Conflict and Fragility
The Saudi-Emirati axis and the preservation of regional order
11 Jan 2022 - 17:05
Conflict and Fragility
Strategizing EU engagement with Syrian diaspora CSO's
04 Oct 2021 - 16:39
Conflict and Fragility
Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya
16 Sep 2021 - 17:18
Conflict and Fragility
Turkey's interventions in its near abroad: The case of Idlib
06 Sep 2021 - 10:34
Conflict and Fragility
Qassem Musleh and Iraq's popular mobilization forces
25 Aug 2021 - 12:22
Conflict and Fragility
Fruitless cherry picking? EU support for the Syrian opposition
28 Jul 2021 - 09:33
Conflict and Fragility
The Securitization of Post-2011 Middle East Political Orders
09 Jun 2021 - 12:31
Conflict and Fragility
New challenges to Israel’s strategies of control
02 Jun 2021 - 18:00
Conflict and Fragility
Factors of instability in the Nineveh Plains
27 May 2021 - 22:59
Conflict and Fragility
The sticky webs of conflict & political order in the Middle East
18 May 2021 - 12:40
Conflict and Fragility
The YPG/PYD during the Syrian conflict
19 Apr 2021 - 11:05
Conflict and Fragility
EU policies and interventions in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars
03 Feb 2021 - 16:20
Conflict and Fragility
Turkey's love-in with Qatar: a marriage of convenience
25 Jan 2021 - 15:17
Conflict and Fragility
Blinking, biding or bombing?
18 Jan 2021 - 10:49
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq and Lebanon’s Tortuous Paths to Reform
22 Dec 2020 - 09:33
Conflict and Fragility
Europe's options to address conflicts in the MENA region
09 Dec 2020 - 13:21
Conflict and Fragility
What Iran’s Leaders Really Think About Biden
02 Dec 2020 - 11:28
Conflict and Fragility
Like it or not: coercive power is essential to development
27 Oct 2020 - 21:23
Conflict and Fragility
The US, Iran and Europe go nuclear
19 Oct 2020 - 10:00
Conflict and Fragility
The Kurdish question and Turkey’s new regional militarism
09 Sep 2020 - 09:31
Conflict and Fragility
Syria’s Constitutional Committee in review
13 Aug 2020 - 10:48
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq's adolescent democracy
15 Jun 2020 - 10:14
Conflict and Fragility
Treating Idlib as protracted crisis
05 Jun 2020 - 11:18
Conflict and Fragility
Pandora’s Box in Syria
28 May 2020 - 13:56
Conflict and Fragility
A Covid-19 upgrade of EU engagement in the Middle East
25 May 2020 - 12:51
Conflict and Fragility
Covid-19 and conflict in the Middle East
30 Apr 2020 - 10:51
Conflict and Fragility
EU options for dealing with the Assad regime
30 Mar 2020 - 10:14
Conflict and Fragility
Security sector stabilisation and development in Libya
02 Apr 2020 - 14:29
Conflict and Fragility
The Syrian Desert Hawks: flying no more
12 Feb 2020 - 18:25
Conflict and Fragility
Turkish proxy warfare in northern Syria
18 Nov 2019 - 13:02
Conflict and Fragility
The Hashd is dead, long live the Hashd!
25 Jul 2019 - 14:24
Conflict and Fragility
A paralysed status quo: expect more protests and violence in Iraq
29 Oct 2019 - 15:28
Conflict and Fragility
Who's afraid of Iraq's Hashd?
16 Sep 2019 - 16:32
Conflict and Fragility
It’s less about Iran and more about stability in the Middle East
12 Jun 2019 - 10:49
Conflict and Fragility
Turkey in northwestern Syria
04 Jun 2019 - 10:54
Conflict and Fragility
The geopolitics of Syria's reconstruction: a case of matryoshka
23 Apr 2019 - 15:13
Conflict and Fragility
Democratie in Israel
03 Apr 2019 - 11:46
Conflict and Fragility
Six scenarios for pro-regime militias in ‘post-war’ Syria
01 Apr 2019 - 13:49
Conflict and Fragility
A big idea for a better response to Syrian displacement
26 Mar 2019 - 10:23
Conflict and Fragility
A European take on Warsaw's anti-Iran show
12 Feb 2019 - 12:12
Conflict and Fragility
The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party in the civil war
15 Jan 2019 - 10:20
Conflict and Fragility
Bezetting en de staat Israël
13 Dec 2018 - 11:03
Conflict and Fragility
Political (dis)order and coercive organisations in the Levant
07 Dec 2018 - 13:29
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq's Al-Hashd Al-Sha'abi 'on the march'
22 Nov 2018 - 11:29
Conflict and Fragility
How the Syrian regime controls refugee return: four tools
17 Sep 2018 - 17:00
Conflict and Fragility
Re-interpreting the notion of 'Useful Syria'
06 Sep 2018 - 16:02
Conflict and Fragility
Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East from 2002 to 2018
23 Jul 2018 - 15:05
Conflict and Fragility
In the eye of the storm? (In)stability in Western Iraqi Kurdistan
13 Jul 2018 - 12:38
Conflict and Fragility
Lebanon: elites, power and security
07 May 2015 - 12:06
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq’s Al-Hashd al-Sha'abi: four key insights
28 Jun 2018 - 16:30
Conflict and Fragility
Spring blossoms in Jordan, but what is next?
19 Jun 2018 - 15:28
Conflict and Fragility
Lebanon's elections: whose victory?
16 May 2018 - 17:09
Conflict and Fragility
Creating a new Syria
16 Apr 2018 - 12:49
Conflict and Fragility
Fighting for Kurdistan? The Peshmerga in Iraq
05 Mar 2018 - 11:05
Conflict and Fragility
Drivers of urban reconstruction in Syria
31 Jan 2018 - 12:56
Conflict and Fragility
Return of authoritarianism primes Middle East for more conflict
19 Dec 2017 - 13:33
Conflict and Fragility
Unsafe Places: Refugee Politics in Lebanese Government Crisis
23 Nov 2017 - 22:23
Conflict and Fragility
Saudi Arabia's strategic stalemate - what next?
06 Nov 2017 - 16:33
Conflict and Fragility
To reconstruct Syria and Iraq, first revisit the script
27 Mar 2018 - 17:05
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq’s Shi’a: A house divided
13 Feb 2018 - 14:33
Conflict and Fragility
Syrian militias supporting Assad: How autonomous are they?
29 Jan 2018 - 12:34
Conflict and Fragility
Is regional turmoil likely to result in conflict in Lebanon?
20 Dec 2017 - 14:28
Conflict and Fragility
Return of authoritarianism primes Middle East for more conflict
19 Dec 2017 - 13:33
Conflict and Fragility
Reconstructing Syria: limitations and possibilities
09 Nov 2017 - 14:15
Conflict and Fragility
Eye of the Storm: Ethiopia Amid Middle Eastern Conflict
31 Oct 2017 - 10:13
Conflict and Fragility
Podcast: the Middle East Peace Process
11 Oct 2017 - 14:44
Conflict and Fragility
Iraq's competing security forces after the battle for Mosul
28 Aug 2017 - 15:32
Conflict and Fragility
From Ramallah to Paris: The Middle East’s forgotten conflict
18 Jan 2017 - 11:26
Conflict and Fragility
The Syrian Humpty-Dumpty
16 Jan 2017 - 12:42
Conflict and Fragility
Iraqi imbroglio: the Islamic State and beyond
24 Nov 2014 - 15:27
Conflict and Fragility
Irak: waar zijn de diplomaten en spionnen?
13 Oct 2014 - 10:12
Conflict and Fragility
Langdurig strijd in de Levant
09 Oct 2014 - 18:21
Conflict and Fragility
The Case for Greater Western Intervention in Syria and Iraq
27 Aug 2014 - 09:31
Conflict and Fragility
Syria’s raging civil war and the west’s inertia
07 Aug 2014 - 16:01
Conflict and Fragility
Options for addressing the Syrian civil war
24 Jul 2014 - 11:57
Conflict and Fragility
Holy war and liberal peace
16 Jun 2014 - 16:32
Conflict and Fragility
Yemen’s future: like Tunisia or Libya?
05 Feb 2014 - 10:54
Conflict and Fragility
Gauging ‘success’ in Yemen’s National Dialogue
30 Sep 2013 - 10:46
Trade and Globalisation
A war of all against the war
03 Sep 2013 - 10:03
Conflict and Fragility
EU cannot get its Syrian act together
16 May 2013 - 17:18
Conflict and Fragility
Stability and economic recovery after Assad
14 Nov 2012 - 10:24
Conflict and Fragility
Syria: take a deep breath
12 Nov 2012 - 10:07
Conflict and Fragility
The curious incident of the Turkish military base in Shiladze
13 Feb 2019 - 12:55
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Erwin van Veen
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Nancy Ezzeddine
Research Fellow
Matteo Colombo
Research Fellow