Since the failure of its strategy to overthrow Assad between 2011 and 2016, Turkey has become a more significant player in the Syrian civil war. First, bringing a fragmented FSA under its command, reorganising these forces into a centralised SNA and partnering with the NLF enabled Turkey to exercise greater control over two key sets of Syrian armed groups in Idlib, Afrin and the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor. This enabled Turkey to establish two semi-autonomous protectorates west of the Euphrates and to expand its influence in Idlib province. Secondly, these arrangements have secured the commitment of a range of Syrian armed groups to operate as irregular forces in Turkey’s recent military operation against the PYD-led Syrian Kurds east of the Euphrates. Thirdly, the Turkish-supported ‘alliance-of-convenience’ of HTS-NLF-SNA in Idlib lost ground after the recent Syrian regime/Russian offensive that captured Khan Sheikhoun and it remains susceptible to internal (Tanzim Hurras al-Din) and external (Russian-regime offensives) disruption.[65]

In sum, Turkey’s vision of resurrecting the ‘revolutionary’ cause in the Syrian civil war for its own benefit, has been effectively executed through growing institutionalised control over, and partnership with, a wide range of SNA and NLF groups.[66] Turkish influence in Idlib remains limited, however, by HTS’s historical affinity with Al-Qaeda, the group’s independence and Abu Muhammed al-Jolani’s personality. Nevertheless, this brief suggests that Turkey’s proxy warfare strategy has effectively merged and centralised many Syrian opposition groups under its own vision of nationalist Islamist governance that will ensure long-term Turkish influence in northern Syria, which is currently being expanded east of the Euphrates river.