When, in 2018, the People’s Republic of China published its first Arctic strategy, claiming that the Middle Kingdom is a ‘near-Arctic state’, many a snigger could be heard throughout the world of Arctic diplomacy. Yet, it is quickly becoming clear that China has built a geostrategic presence in the Arctic that is not to be sniggered at. It is already reshaping circumpolar politics in fundamental ways. Therefore, this Clingendael report aims to answer the following questions:

China’s Arctic strategy, in particular as it materialises in Iceland and Greenland, leads us to conclude that China’s growing presence in the Arctic is not a direct threat to European countries but rather a long-term strategic issue of great importance, but not great urgency.

Above all, China shows the power of presence by claiming a seat at the table in the Arctic Council and by investing in strategic sectors and diplomatic relations with Arctic states. Europe's challenge will be to re-engage with Iceland and Greenland, and China's presence there, in a similar multi-layered way, coordinating short-, medium- and long-term strategies. Specifically, European countries should:

The Netherlands should advocate for a more pronounced EU Arctic policy. It should support strategic adjustments to the EU’s raw materials policy and its support for Overseas Territories (like Greenland), fisheries and (digital) connectivity policy. It should step up its diplomatic ties with Iceland and Greenland. The Netherlands should also consider how it can reinforce its direct ties with Iceland and Greenland, for instance through intensified science cooperation. The Netherlands could also enhance dialogue with other Arctic states (e.g. with Finland) on China’s growing presence, reconsider how EU policy towards Russia may have unintended consequences for intensified Sino-Russia relations in the Arctic and start a debate on an inclusive forum to discuss the geopolitics of the Arctic and think about confidence-building measures.