The Black Sea has long been of strategic importance, lying at the crossroads of Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. Its significance stems from its role as a gateway for energy transit, trade, and military access. Russia’s war against Ukraine has reshaped the region’s security landscape, disrupting trade and maritime operations while posing broader challenges for both Black Sea NATO members and non-aligned littoral states.

In response to Russia’s increasingly hostile actions, littoral states are taking measures to safeguard their economic and security interests. Until the war is resolved, security in the Black Sea and the wider region will remain under strain, making it a pressing regional priority. Prospects for ending the war through a negotiated settlement remain limited, as the two sides’ positions are still too far apart to provide sufficient overlap for meaningful negotiations.

For Ukraine, the Black Sea is an economic lifeline, vital for exporting grain and other commodities to international markets and for maintaining its role in global food security. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian agricultural exports has demonstrated how disruptions in maritime navigation directly translate into global price shocks and shortages. Ukraine’s objectives are centred on restoring territorial integrity, ensuring security guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war and maintaining access to international shipping routes. A premature ceasefire without such guarantees could entrench Russia’s occupation and undermine Kyiv’s long-term survival.

Russia, by contrast, seeks to consolidate control over Crimea and other occupied territories, maintain influence through energy pipelines and hybrid operations, and reshape the Black Sea into a contested rather than cooperative space. For Moscow, a ceasefire without clearly defined conditions could provide time to mitigate the effects of sanctions and pursue hybrid tactics to destabilise Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region.

The Black Sea thus occupies a central role in any discussion of potential ceasefire arrangements and long-term settlement. Beyond the immediate concerns of territorial sovereignty, it raises issues of food and energy security, the freedom and safety of commercial navigation, the protection of strategic infrastructure, and the stability of regional alliances. Whether and how these challenges are addressed will not only shape the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine but also define the future security architecture of both the wider Black Sea region and Europe as a whole.

This report explores how Russia’s war against Ukraine affects Black Sea security and Europe’s capacity to enhance regional deterrence. For strategic reasons, it also considers key adjacent states, such as Moldova and Georgia, whose vulnerabilities and geographic positions influence regional stability. It addresses three key questions:

The report identifies priority areas for the EU and the EU-aligned littoral states to strengthen regional security through credible deterrence, social and economic resilience, and energy independence while curbing Russia’s disruptive influence.

This report draws on a combination of literature reviews, an analysis of economic and government data, and interviews with policy experts and diplomats to provide a comprehensive assessment of Black Sea security and Europe’s regional strategy. Insights were gathered from secondary sources as well as primary conversations with experts to ensure a nuanced understanding of both the strategic and economic dimensions of the region. This mixed-methods approach underpins the analysis throughout the report, supporting evidence-based conclusions on the Black Sea’s strategic relevance, Russia’s influence on regional stability, and priorities for Europe’s security and diplomatic engagement.

The first chapter of the report analyses the Black Sea’s strategic relevance for Europe and how the Russia–Ukraine war has affected it. The second chapter discusses how Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea impacts regional stability and European resilience. The third chapter outlines the priorities to guide Europe’s regional strategy, and how these can shape its diplomatic role in ending the war. In the conclusion, specific recommendations are made for the EU and EU-member states bordering the Black Sea.