Nearing the brink?
Political instability in Tajikistan
Markus Göransson
October 2016
Nearing the brink?
Political instability in Tajikistan
CRU Report

Some observers have claimed that Tajikistan is on the verge of state collapse. Yet the regime of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon seems remarkably stable, buoyed by international support, its control over patronage and a war-weary and repressed public. Indeed, there is little evidence that a serious threat is brewing against it. Notwithstanding alarmist reports that home-grown and foreign-based militants are poised for an attack on Dushanbe, there is little verifiable evidence that an Islamist insurgency is in the making. Meanwhile, the domestic political opposition remains leaderless, divided and in many cases in prison or foreign exile.

Talk of the risk of state failure is in fact playing into the hands of the Rahmon regime. Under claims that it faces an Islamist challenge the regime has been able to negotiate military and economic support from Russia, China and the West. It has also escaped serious criticism of its human rights abuses from the United States and the EU, who fear losing their foothold in the Central Asian state. Instead, the regime has pushed on down the road of authoritarian consolidation, tightening its grip on a population that already suffers from the effects of an economic crisis.

The report argues that the current Western approach to Tajikistan has done little to temper the heavy-handedness of the regime and needs to be reviewed. A more assertive engagement should centre on: 1) refuting the Tajik regime’s fear-mongering about the Islamist threat, thereby undercutting a central justification of its repression and security build-up; 2) reaching out to other foreign stakeholders, notably China and Russia, in the joint pursuit of Tajik stability; and 3) taking steps to generate jobs in Tajikistan for labour migrants who return from joblessness in Russia.

Overall, Western countries should be realistic about the low risk of serious conflict in Tajikistan but at the same time take steps to relieve pressures stemming from the economic crisis and the Tajik government’s ill-conceived policies. Ironically, while there is little danger of an imminent meltdown in Tajikistan, there is a real risk of government overreach.

About the author

Markus Göransson has a PhD in international politics from Aberystwyth University and has conducted extensive research in Tajikistan. He currently works as a freelance consultant in conflict research.

Cover photo

Landmarks in the Tajik capital Dushanbe

© Markus Göransson