Belarus on Thin Ice
January 2025
Belarus on Thin Ice
Future Scenarios and European Policy Dilemmas
Kaspar Pucek & Bob Deen

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Matthew Frear, Yauheni Preiherman, Artyom Shraibman, Tony van der Togt, and Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld for their invaluable input and peer reviews of the report.

Disclaimer: The research for and production of this report have been conducted within the Russia and Eastern Europe Knowledge Alliance (REKA) funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

About the authors


Kaspar Pucek is a Research Fellow at the Security Unit and the Russia and Eastern Europe Centre (CREEC) of the Clingendael Institute. His research focuses on the geopolitics, politics, and political economy of Russia, as well as the wider Eurasian and Eastern European regions.

Bob Deen is a Senior Research Fellow and Head of the Security Unit of the Research department of the Clingendael Institute. He is also the Coordinator of the Clingendael Russia and Eastern Europe Centre (CREEC). His research focuses on international security issues, geopolitics, multilateral co-operation and inter-ethnic conflict, with a particular emphasis on Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.