Methodology of the geopolitical landscape map | The EU in the South Caucasus

Methodology

This geopolitical landscape map assesses the relative importance of each of the actors, as well as the relations between them. It does so by providing quantitative scores to both the relevance of the actors and the strength of their relationships, as well as by giving a qualitative assessment of the relationships themselves.

Actors are ranked according to their regional influence in the South Caucasus, i.e., not their power as a whole, using the following scores:

4: The three states of the South Caucasus themselves

3: Regional powers with major influence over events

2: Individual countries with particular interests or ties with specific countries

1: Distant powers with limited interests.

For the purpose of this exercise, the European Union is taken as a single actor, although individual member states (such as France) also have a degree of ‘actorness’ themselves.

Relations between the actors are characterized as ‘good’, ‘bad’ or ‘ambiguous’. They are scored according to the intensity of the relationship, as follows:

5: Direct or indirect military confrontation or alliance

4: Strong political, economic, or military support, but no direct involvement

3: Significant level of interaction (confrontation or support) but no security assistance

2: Low level of engagement, no military or economic support.

1: Lack of relations

The relations are scored to the extent that they influence geopolitics in the South Caucasus, not on world politics as a whole; i.e., the US and Russia or the US and China have a much broader range of relationships that are not included in this exercise.

The following table underpins the interactive geopolitical landscape map visualised in Kumu:

From	To	Type	Strength
Azerbaijan	EU	Good	3
France	Azerbaijan	Bad	3
Azerbaijan	Russia	Ambiguous	4
Georgia	Azerbaijan	Good	4
Georgia	US	Good	4
Georgia	Turkey	Good	4
Turkey	Iran	Ambiguous	4
Iran	Israel	Bad	5
China	Azerbaijan	Good	2
US	Russia	Bad	4
China	Kazakhstan	Good	3
France	Armenia	Good	4
Armenia	Azerbaijan	Bad	5
Armenia	EU	Good	3
Azerbaijan	US	Good	3
Russia	Turkey	Ambiguous	4
Kazakhstan	Azerbaijan	Good	3
Armenia	India	Good	4
Russia	Israel	Good	3
Georgia	Russia	Bad	4
Azerbaijan	Israel	Good	4
Armenia	China	Good	2
Azerbaijan	Pakistan	Good	4
Turkey	US	Ambiguous	4
Russia	Iran	Good	4
Azerbaijan	Turkey	Good	5
Israel	Armenia	Ambiguous	2
Turkey	Israel	Ambiguous	3
Georgia	EU	Good	4
Azerbaijan	India	Bad	2
Armenia	Georgia	Good	2
EU	Turkey	Ambiguous	4
India	Pakistan	Bad	5
EU	Russia	Bad	4
Azerbaijan	Iran	Bad	4
Armenia	US	Good	3
Armenia	Russia	Ambiguous	5
Armenia	Iran	Good	3
Armenia	Turkey	Bad	4
EU	US	Good	4