This report is based on a mix of political science theory, analysis of existing qualitative research, a set of interviews conducted in Baghdad and social media analysis of three key Shi’a political/armed groups. All analysis was conducted between June and January 2016.
The model for analysing factors that influence political relation- and coalition-building processes was developed on the basis of existing political science literature using key words such as ‘coalition formation’, ‘social identity’, ‘political party alliances’ and ‘electoral strategies’. Searches were focused on the particular political conditions of fragile and conflict-affected environments. The resulting insights were tested against more Iraq-specific analyses to ensure emerging factors were fit for purpose. Annexe 2 provides the model in full.
This model was subsequently used to comb through existing analyses of the political situation in Iraq from 1991 to 2016. These 25 years were divided into five distinct periods that are delineated by major markers relevant to Iraq’s Shi’a community. We focused on events relevant to the Shi’a community because of the report’s focus on Shi’a coalition formation. Section 2 of the report relates such events to Iraq-wide events over the same period. This provided a useful frame for understanding the direction and relevance of different factors over time. The result was five non-published working reports of c. 15 pages each. We also commissioned a discussion paper to inform this phase of the work that was produced by Renad Mansour of Chatham House.[136] The periods are:
|
Period |
Start and finish events |
|---|---|
|
1991–2003 (12 years) |
From the Shi’a rising against Saddam Hussein to the murder of Abdel Majid al-Khoei |
|
2003–2006 (3 years) |
From the murder of Abdel Majid al-Khoei to the destruction of the Al-Askari shrine |
|
2005–2010 (5 years) |
From the election of Al-Ja’afari to the end of Al-Maliki (I) |
|
2010–2014 (4 years) |
From the election of Al-Maliki (II) to the fatwa that called Iraqi’s to arms against the Islamic State |
|
2014–2016 (4 years) |
From the fatwa that called Iraqi’s to arms against the Islamic State to the Green Zone protests |
Twenty interviews were conducted in Baghdad between 30 October and 5 November 2016 with a mix of government representatives, parliamentarians, members of armed groups (both paramilitary and non-state) and religious representatives. These interviews were conducted on the basis of anonymity and lasted about an hour each.
In-depth analysis of Arabic-language social media was conducted by Nissrine Majdi of three Iraqi Shi’a groups that seemed under-analysed in English-language works despite their relevance: the Badr corps, Asaib ahl al-Haq and the Sadrist Trend (including its various armed wings). This analysis mapped group objectives, recent experiences and alliances.
The main weakness of the report is that it does not properly analyse ‘secular’ Shi’a parties, movements and/or protesters (secular in the sense of separating politics from religion to some degree). The interviews in Baghdad sought to remedy this gap, but were unsuccessful.