Disclaimer: The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

About the authors

Bob Deen is Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute and coordinator of the Clingendael Russia and Eastern Europe Centre (CREEC). His research focuses on international security issues and multilateral cooperation, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Niels Drost is a Research Fellow at the Clingendael Russia & Eastern Europe Centre (CREEC) and the EU & Global Affairs Unit. His research focuses on contemporary politics and security issues in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Milou Carstens is a Research Assistant at the EU & Global Affairs Unit of the Clingendael Institute, where she focuses on political developments in Eastern Europe.

Photo credits

© The Kremlin inside a crystal ball, as imagined by generative AI