Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, conflicts in Central Asia have simmered in the background and have escalated once in a while.[27] At the heart of these conflicts lie disputed and sometimes arbitrary-looking borders. These have been the subject of negotiations characterised by “intense power struggles, economic coercion, covert agreements, and rising nationalist sentiments”, against the background of mutual distrust and public dissatisfaction.[28] Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for example, share a 976-kilometer border, of which more than a third used to be disputed until just last year.

An often cited theory is that Soviet authorities intentionally created complex borders as part of a ‘divide and rule’ strategy, but this only partially explains the current situation. The borders were delineated by Soviet cartographers working alongside local Communist Party officials, based on amongst other points of information census data and ethnographic studies, in an attempt to reflect the intricate ethnic mosaic of the region.[29]

Nevertheless, borders that used to be merely internal divisions between Soviet republics suddenly became international borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Populations that used to be united under the same country suddenly found themselves on opposite sides of the border, sometimes even completely cut off from their homelands in enclaves, as visualised in figure 3. As one interviewee described the situation: “In Soviet times things used to be good – different peoples used to eat plov [a local rice dish] together; now, resources decide the relationship and there is no arbiter”.[31]

The Fergana Valley is a striking example of this, where six enclaves divided between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are located – in the most fertile and densely populated area of Central Asia. Their inhabitants therefore compete for access to water, pastures, and agricultural land. The last time that similar issues spiralled out of control was in April 2021, over disputes at the Golovnoi water distribution point on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border, and in September 2022, when Tajik and Kyrgyz soldiers exchanged gunfire on the border between Batken and Soghd.[32]

While territorial disputes and claims are fundamental in this conflict, clashes over access to water and other resources further escalate the existing tensions. The most recent conflicts with the worst impact occurred in 2021 and 2022, in which many civilians on both sides of the borders were killed.[33]

Now, a few years later, things look much better. At the end of 2024, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have settled their border disputes.[35] Earlier in 2024, both agreed on the sovereignty of each state over its exclaves – while guaranteeing unrestricted access for transport and communication links between the exclaves and each country.[36] And in April 2024, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on a “historic border deal” in which Uzbekistan incorporated the former Kyrgyz exclave of Barak, in exchange for an equivalent portion of Uzbekistan’s Andijon province.[37]

Similarly, relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have significantly improved since the settlement of their border dispute, which could prove to be an example for other Central Asian states’ efforts to settle issues over border demarcation.[38]