A brief analysis of the Failed States Index 2005-2010

There is a growing international concern about the group of 30-40 countries that continues to be deeply affected by violent conflict, weak capacity and problematic state-society relations. This group of fragile states is lagging 40 to 60 percent behind other low and middle-income countries in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Fragility threatens the lives and livelihoods of at least one billion people. It is in these countries where half of the world's children die before the age of five and where one third of the population lives on less than USD1 a day. Fragile states also give rise to significant negative externalities, which affect neighboring states and those beyond.

Several indices track developments in fragility, usually on the basis of a set of political, socio-economic and security indicators. The Fund for Peace has been publishing such an index since 2005. This paper analyzes the developments in fragility this index tracks, in an attempt to gain further insights into the phenomenon of fragility that can inform policy formulation. It shows a fairly constant level of global fragility and flags specific indicators that stand out in particular. The analysis re-emphasizes the long-term nature of fragility. It also suggests that effective international engagement requires the ability to engage in a broad set of areas in an integrated manner and on the basis of context-specific analysis. This raises significant challenges for donors and multilateral agencies as it demands a high degree of organizational coherence, strategic alignment and dedicated yet flexible resources.