The crisis in North Africa

Implications for Europe and options for EU policymakers

The Arab Spring dramatically transformed the strategic environment on Europe’s southern border. Long-tenured autocrats in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia – brutal as they may have been to their own citizens – had brought a measure of stability and predictability to the Mediterranean. But tumultuous political developments since the leaders of all three countries fell in 2011 have created a range of new threats that European policymakers will be forced to address in the years to come.

This report has three goals. First, it describes the most important current trends related to security, economy, and migration in the five North African states. Second, the study identifies the biggest impacts that regional developments will have on Europe, and anticipates contingencies that could arise in the near to medium-term that might demand a European response. Finally, the report proposes a menu of policy options that European decision-makers can consider to counter the prevailing regional threats and prepare for contingencies.

The full report can be accessed below.