Research

Articles

Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take-off?

26 Aug 2010 - 14:12
Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to portray four scenarios for the future of Sudan in the year

2012. On the basis of these scenarios it aims to draw a number of conclusions on the

future of Sudan and the way ahead.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses the Shell methodology for scenario building and is based on five scenario

workshops held in Sudan, one in The Netherlands, interviews and literature research. The

four scenarios not only intend to provide an overview of what is likely to happen, but also

aim to be plausible, challenging and creative.

Findings

The paper finds that the future of Sudan is likely to remain violent and that the most

optimistic scenario is also the least likely. It concludes that, although outside mediation

and assistance in the organization of elections are needed, the critical difference between

a successful and an unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by

whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.

Practical implications

The paper provides a number of policy recommendations for the international community

to prevent the worst from happening and to be prepared for what may come.

Originality/value

The paper aims to fill the gap in future foresight with regard to Sudan and for this purpose

utilized the knowledge among the Sudanese themselves.