Research
Articles
Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take-off?
The purpose of this paper is to portray four scenarios for the future of Sudan in the year
2012. On the basis of these scenarios it aims to draw a number of conclusions on the
future of Sudan and the way ahead.
Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses the Shell methodology for scenario building and is based on five scenario
workshops held in Sudan, one in The Netherlands, interviews and literature research. The
four scenarios not only intend to provide an overview of what is likely to happen, but also
aim to be plausible, challenging and creative.
FindingsThe paper finds that the future of Sudan is likely to remain violent and that the most
optimistic scenario is also the least likely. It concludes that, although outside mediation
and assistance in the organization of elections are needed, the critical difference between
a successful and an unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by
whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.
Practical implicationsThe paper provides a number of policy recommendations for the international community
to prevent the worst from happening and to be prepared for what may come.
Originality/valueThe paper aims to fill the gap in future foresight with regard to Sudan and for this purpose
utilized the knowledge among the Sudanese themselves.