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Strategic Uncertainty and the Regional Security Order in East Asia

30 Nov 2015 - 11:20
Source: Wikipedia

As rivalry between the United States and China (People’s Republic of China, PRC) continues to intensify, regional security in East Asia is increasingly interconnected with global stability. East Asia, with various ongoing security issues that date back to the Cold War, is the region where geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing primarily manifests itself. The regional security order is therefore a matter of global consequence.

Two major uncertainties are shaping the regional order in East Asia. The first is uncertainty regarding the rise of China: Will it continue and, if so, how will this affect the relations between the PRC and other actors? The second is uncertainty about the future role of the United States: Will America continue to be a leading security actor in East Asia, and if so, what will this mean for the way in which Sino-US rivalry will play out? The strategic behaviour of all countries in the region, including the US and China themselves, is fundamentally influenced by these two major uncertainties.

This article outlines the sources of, responses to, and the implications of these two uncertainties for the evolving regional security order. What are current trends, and what is the outlook for the short to mid-term future?

The article can be accessed here .