Europe

Clingendael’s activities in 2014 in the area of EU integration focused primarily on the increasing tensions of economic integration, institutionalisation and the position of the member states. These tensions were analysed through three research lenses: ‘institutional develop­ments’; ‘policy developments’; and ‘economic governance’. Together, these core themes resulted in a revealing overview of the major institutional shifts that seem to be taking place in the EU and that affect the position of the Netherlands in the EU. The European Commission is increasingly becoming an ‘executive’ body. At the same time, the European Parliament seems to be strengthening its position. These developments differ from expectations on the basis of ‘Lisbon’ and the first responses to the euro crisis, which suggested a trend towards more intergovernmental cooperation. The trend now seems to be a joined-up emancipation of the Commission as ‘executive’ and the European Parliament.

Dutch minister of Finance Jeroen Dijsselbloem (l.) in debate with Clingendael Europe researcher Dr Adriaan Schout.
(Photo: EC/&Maet/Clingendael)

At the level of the EU member states, national parliaments, central banks and national fiscal institutions are responding by looking for ways to dampen their loss of influence. They aim to exert more influence, for instance by using the subsidiarity principle and the ‘yellow card’ ­procedure. National institutions such as the national central banks and the national fiscal institutions (‘CPBs’) appear to be losing their positions. 2014 was the year in which the tension between deepening integration and the position of member states came to the fore. This conclusion was incorporated in the article ‘Europe without Member States’ [forthcoming] and resulted in experts’ discussions in the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Dutch Cabinet Office. As general policy advice, this body of research suggests that the Netherlands might want to focus during each next step in EU governance on the question of ‘how can integration be combined with a reinforced role of national administrations’?

A sample of related EU research output on these topics in 2014 includes media appearances, as well as specific products, such as an article on the independence of European Commissioner Rehn, a policy brief on comitology and regulatory burdens and a high-level seminar on subsidiarity. In addition, a series of debates on current EU topics in different cities (from Groningen to Rotterdam), for instance on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), was organised for the European Commission’s representation in the Netherlands in cooperation with &MAES. The final debate in this series was organised in De Balie in Amsterdam with Minister Dijsselbloem, Commission officials and MEPs on the achievements of the renewed EU governance.

Apart from a focus on EU integration, analyses and activities also covered ‘the European Neighbourhood Policy’ and the ‘European Eastern Partnership’. The Eastern Partnership of the European Union faces a number of serious challenges. Conflict in the Ukraine, the deterioration of relations with Russia, and acute economic and financial crises in Eastern Partnership countries have created a challenging new background for EU policies in the region that question the nature of the Eastern Partnership. Clingendael Research output included an analysis on the return of geopolitics in Eastern Europe. Furthermore, in cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Clingendael organised an event on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Overall, the scope of the work has resulted in policy papers and analyses for Dutch and European audiences, contributions to newspapers and periodicals (such as the Internationale Spectator), as well as contributions to think-tank meetings, workshops and meetings of experts in various countries, including the United States.

Global Issues

Clingendael’s Global Issues team’s research focuses on a wide range of subjects related to the consequences of a rapidly changing international system, with the aim to support governments and international organisations in dealing more effectively with the policy challenges on global public goods, transnational governance, European strategic partnerships and trends in diplomacy.

One of the main themes in 2014 was how the EU could position itself in this changing world order. The book The EU and Effective Multilateralism: Internal and External Reform Practices (Routledge) and an expert seminar in Brussels have contributed to this debate by examining the extent to which the EU has defined and made operational the notion of effective multilateralism. Furthermore, an assessment of the EU’s strategy and practice on trade diplomacy – with a particular focus on relations with countries in East Asia – was undertaken. The report The Asian Development Bank: What is in it for Europe? provides analysis resulting in a set of policy recommendations to the Dutch and other European governments for dealing with this shifting regional and global power balance, of which the Asian Development Bank is symptomatic. Another main question that was addressed as part of this work concerns the TTIP. The team published a policy brief on the geopolitical implications of the TTIP, giving further insight into how this trade agreement might influence the future of transatlantic relations, global trade governance, and the West’s relationship with rising economies such as China, India and Brazil.

A second core theme in the 2014 agenda was the impact of the digital revolution on diplomacy. Whereas it seems obvious that there may be consequences, it is not yet clear how the digital revolution will affect traditional diplomacy. A project was started in 2014, with an increasing number of EU governments as clients, with the aim to evaluate these effects and implications for the way forward.

Third, the team delivered major contributions to the ongoing debate on the relevance and future of global public goods. A large study called Beyond Scares and Tales: Climate-Proofing Dutch Foreign Policy offers a comprehensive overview of the impact of climate change on Dutch foreign policy. The study analyses to what extent Dutch foreign policies in the fields of development cooperation, foreign economic relations and security are climate-proof.

Asia

Clingendael’s activities on the Asia–Pacific region and their relevance for Europe resulted in contributions to conferences on Asia, both in Asia and in Europe. A conference on the role of cities in international relations was held in Shanghai in cooperation with Chinese and German partners. Other events on Asia included a conference organised with Leiden University and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Chinese media, two seminars on Chinese investment in the port of Piraeus, a joint public event with the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) on the relevance of the rise of Asia for Dutch foreign policy, another public event held in Brussels jointly with the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS) and the Madariaga-College of Europe Foundation on the regional security order in East Asia, and discussion sessions on Europe’s trade diplomacy in Asia with Dutch officials and with diplomats from the ASEAN region.

Clingendael staff published various articles and reports, not only about Asia but also in Asian academic outlets and the media, which reflects a fast-growing network in countries such as China, Japan and South Korea. The topics of research projects in 2014 included the Asian Development Bank (ADB), EU–Asia trade diplomacy, EU–Taiwan economic relations, Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean, China’s Maritime Silk Road Strategy, and China and liberalism in international relations (an article to be published in 2015). Two edited volumes were completed for publication, both with Palgrave Macmillan, the first on the role of the United Stated in regional security in East Asia and the second on public diplomacy in East Asia (which will appear in 2015). The Institute’s own online platform on Asian affairs, Clingendael Asia Forum, continued its series of opinion articles. Researchers also contributed to the public debate in the Netherlands and Europe more broadly through media performances (including radio and newspapers) and opinion articles.

Starting from January 2015, the Institute’s research activities relating to Asia were integrated in the work on Europe in the World and Security department. While there is no longer a separate team of researchers on Asia, Clingendael is committed to continuing to develop the Asia-related capacity that it established and has maintained since 2006. Even more so than before, the relevance of Asia for the EU and its security will be explicit focal points of Clingendael Research.

Security

Clingendael Research’s Security team works on the basis of analysing longer-term trends and their effects on national, EU and global security (for example, through the Clingendael Monitor project), as well as analysing new or ongoing crises. The 2014 agenda of the security-related research was influenced by several international events and developments. The escalating conflict in Ukraine, the downing of flight MH17, the conflicts in North Africa and the Sahel region, as well as the Middle East (including the declaration of the Caliphate of the Islamic State), resulted in a new sense of insecurity at the borders of Europe, with potential implications for security within Europe. This sudden change led to a spike in demand for ana­lyses and assessments by national and international media, as well as policy-­makers. Media representation related to these events and developments was therefore much in demand during 2014. In 2014, the Security team of the Research Department of Clingendael was involved in public debates on issues related to the nexus between internal and external ­security. With conflict returning to the territory of Europe, hundreds of casualties because of the downing of flight MH17, massive immigration flows and the rise of the Islamic State, it became clear that conflict and insecurity at the borders of Europe will have direct implications for security within Europe. Researchers of the Security team commented extensively on these events in Dutch and international media.

In addition to analysing new developments, the research output on security focused on projects and activities related to the programme funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence, as well as research projects and activities funded by other clients. Among the flagship projects of the 2014 agenda was organisation of the Nuclear Knowledge Summit, which was an official side event of the Nuclear Security Summit 2014, in which 240 nuclear experts and NGO participants from all over the world participated to exchange knowledge and to think about nuclear security without any political constraints.

Nuclear Knowledge Summit: overview of the conference room. (Photo: Clingendael)

In October 2014, Clingendael organised an international conference with participation from the Netherlands’ main defence partners – Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany – on the topic of ‘Defence Cooperation in Clusters’. The aim of the conference was to produce recommen­dations for how to deal with the issues that challenge the realisation of deeper defence integration. The Security team furthermore organised a meeting of experts in Brussels on the topic of ‘The EU as a Security Provider’. Over 100 participants discussed various aspects of the EU’s external–internal security nexus and the increasing involvement of the European Commission and agencies in security matters and how this affects the relationship between the communitarian EU institutions, the Common Security and Defence Policy actors and the EU member states. Another international conference was organised on the issue of setting a progressive UN peace and security agenda, discussing the need for reform and searching for new narratives. In addition to this two-day event, a student shadow conference was organised, with students from the Free University of Amsterdam, as well as an essay contest. The results of both side activities were used as input in the main event.

Apart from these larger events, the Security team’s output varied from small-size expert meetings to policy briefs, reports and various contributions to panels and seminars organised by other organisations, as well as hearings in the Dutch Parliament. During 2014, the Clingendael Security team strengthened its relationship with various international partners by closely cooperating in different projects. These international partners include the MacArthur Foundation, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, the Igarapé Institute, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the Egmont Institute, the Truman Institute, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) and Istituto Affari Internazionale (IAI). Its researchers moreover contributed to various security advisory committees.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Frans Timmermans, receives the first copy of the Clingendael Strategic Monitor 2014 ‘A world order balancing on the brink’ from Clingendael director Ko Colijn. (Photo: Clingendael)

As part of its annual update on global security-related trends, a Clingendael Strategic Monitor, titled An Unstable World Order, was published. This publication feeds into strategy discussions of the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security and Justice. Related to these discussions, Clingendael Research also continued its contribution to the multi-stakeholder National Risk Assessment project (Nationale Risicobeoordeling). In 2014, part VI of this publication was released by the National Coordinator on Counter-terrorism and Security. This interdepartmental scenario-oriented project aims to assist Dutch government agencies to review capacities and preparedness for potential security and safety risks at the national level.

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague – a partnership with the Asser Institute and Leiden University’s campus in The Hague – continued to specialise in research on and the application of comprehensive forms of counter-terrorism.

Besides a constant flow of publications (four Research Papers and thirteen Policy Briefs/Commentaries), the ICCT became increasingly involved in multilateral policy advocacy and support, with a growing focus on the phenomenon of the foreign fighter, which dominated the discourse on (counter-)terrorism in 2014. Other themes included further analysis on Ansar al Sharia in Tunisia, the nexus between security and development, (counter-)narratives, research on radicalisation and extremism, as well as a critical review of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2178 (2014). In 2014, the ICCT organised three (international) conferences, four closed expert meetings and three public seminars.

In terms of capacity development activities, the ICCT embarked on a new phase of the Rehabilitation and Reintegration Programme, which now covers three countries, along with the development of an individual intake and risk assessment tool for violent extremist offenders. NATO approved a research project on transitioning from military interventions to long-term counter-terrorism strategies, as well as a conference on counter-terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa region. With funding from the Dutch government, the ICCT also started a pilot project on (returning) foreign fighters, and proceeded with ongoing projects such as the witness protection programme, and extended funding to institutionalise the Victims’ Voices Project in Indonesia. The ICCT also joined various consortia in bids for European Union-funded projects.

A significant part of the final quarter of 2014 was used to draft a new and ambitious five-year strategy.

Finally, 2014 saw the departure of core staff (Director Peter Knoope, a Programme Manager and a Programme Officer) and the arrival of new staff (Director Mark Singleton, a new Programme Manager and Programme Assistant). With a fast growing portfolio, more staff are expected to join during 2015.

Conflict Research Unit (CRU)

The Conflict Research Unit (CRU) is a specialised team within the Clingendael Institute, conducting applied, policy-oriented research on the nexus between violent conflict, political transition and inclusive development processes. By translating complex research questions into policy and programming advice, CRU aims to assist national and multilateral governmental and non-governmental organisations in their efforts to develop and implement more effective policies and programming on stability, development and rule of law in fragile and conflict-­affected countries. Taking an integrated analysis of conflict dynamics and the broader political economy as the starting point for its work, the Unit’s research activities cover the full programme cycle: from conflict and context analysis, to programme design, to programme monitoring and programme adjustment, to programme evaluation and the measuring of results.

The year 2014 proved to be a dynamic and demanding year for the CRU team, as it continued to expand successfully its project portfolio. In order to provide its clients with relevant analytical input for developing policy and operational responses to the large number of unfolding crises in the world, increased capacity was required, which has resulted in an expansion of the team. After starting the year with a team of nine in-house researchers, in December 2014 the CRU team consisted of sixteen researchers, combining operational and policy experience with the strong analytical skills that are needed to cover the entire spectrum of investigative research, policy work and programming support.

Mali (Photo: Emilia Tjernström (Flickr))

A driving force behind CRU’s expanding project portfolio is the continued working relationship with the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Through the Stability, Development and Rule of Law Research Programme (2013–2016), CRU supports and further strengthens the work of the MFA in the fields of peace, security and development. Moreover, through the management of the Secretariat for the Knowledge Platform Security and Rule of Law – on behalf of the MFA and in collaboration with the Hague Institute for Global Justice – CRU contributes to the enhancement of exchange of knowledge among policy-makers, practitioners and researchers working on the strengthening of security and rule of law in fragile settings.

A new partnership was entered into in early 2014, when CRU was enabled to start its Sahel Research programme with support from the Dutch National Postcode Lottery (NPL). The programme centres on Mali and its direct neighbourhood, where state collapse, humanitarian emergencies, terrorist activity and organised crime have made headlines in recent years.

The overarching objective of the programme is to complement and strengthen the work done by other beneficiaries of the NPL that are active in the region, by providing them with analytical input and by sharing and discussing new insights into the formal and informal political and economic arrangements that underlie the region’s instability. To complement the research project, Clingendael Academy will organise capacity-building training for programme officers from development and humanitarian agencies working in the Sahel region in 2015.

CRU also provided services to a range of other clients and partners in 2014, including the governments of Denmark and Germany; the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF); the European Commission; the World Bank Group’s International Financing Corporation; the UN Development Programme’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery; the UN Department for Peacekeeping Operations; the UN Peacebuilding Support Office; the OECD International Network on Conflict and Fragility (INCAF); and non-governmental organisations such as Cordaid, International IDEA and the Netherlands Institute for Multi-Party Democracy.

A central component in all of CRU’s work is the conduct of country-specific political economy analyses to help guide the formulation and implementation of policies and programming of international actors – whether donor governments or aid organisations – in fragile and conflict-affected settings. In 2014, because of the on-going crises in the region, combined with the uprising of the Islamic State, analyses continued to focus on the Middle East and North Africa region (Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq), as well as on the Sahel region (Mali and Nigeria, in relation to Boko Haram) and the wider Horn of Africa (Central African Republic, South Sudan and Somalia). A new focus was Ukraine. In support of international efforts to strengthen the rule of law in Ukraine as a stabilising factor in the unfolding crisis, CRU conducted an analysis focusing on criminal influence in the judicial system and how it may be addressed.

Other projects looked into various contemporary and emerging policy challenges. As part of its line of work on security and justice issues, for instance, CRU conducted an examination of state-of-the-art security sector reform (SSR) as a policy concept and an instrument of state-building, security and development in fragile and conflict-affected contexts, providing an overview of current critiques and evident short-comings of SSR in its contemporary form, as well as opportunities to push the concept and its implementation in more effective directions. In collaboration with the Stimson Center and the Folke Bernadotte Academy, CRU also conducted an independent review of the progress that the UN Global Focal Point on Police, Justice and Corrections (GFP) has made since its inception. The review provides concrete suggestions on how senior UN management, as well as UN member states, can support the GFP initiative to live up to the credible promise that it holds as an effective tool for the delivery of police, justice and corrections assistance to UN missions and country teams across the globe.

As part of its work on politics and crime, CRU – in collaboration with NOREF – commissioned a series of papers to explore the new wave of violent groups that defy the models of traditional armed conflict. Pressure to rethink the policies adopted towards these non-state armed groups – whether extremist factions, urban gangs, drug-trafficking organisations, vigilante groups or protection racketeers – has intensified as the efforts to stifle them through security measures alone yield disappointing results. It is also clear that conventional restraints on warfare have limited traction, and that new legal, political or diplomatic mechanisms to regulate armed violence are required. Yet how will it be possible to negotiate with these groups, change the economic environment in which they operate, or reshape their links to local communities? The papers include case studies of Colombia, Libya, Mali, Mexico, Syria and Somalia; comparative analyses of the role played by borderland economies and drug trafficking in perpetuating violence; and possible policy responses in the shape of international law, business regulation, reintegration of fighters and mediation with these groups.

During 2014, CRU continued to develop further its work on private sector development in fragile and conflict-affected settings. For instance, it conducted research on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in fragile settings. Grounded in analysis of the perceptions and strategies of local SMEs in situations prone to, or affected by, violent conflict, the research reveals some key influential factors, the so-called ‘rules of the game’, that appear to significantly shape business behaviour in those environments, but that standard enterprise surveys struggle to capture. CRU also continued to strengthen its partnership with the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC), supporting IFC in developing a private ­sector-focused fragility and conflict assessment that can generate the real map of power and conflict dynamics in relation to the private sector, in order to inform decisions about programmatic entry points and conflict risk-mitigation strategies.