EU countries are still deeply enmeshed in the crisis mode, providing essential temporary protection to Ukrainian refugees. Yet at the same time, a number of factors are forcing the realisation that the protection for a significant proportion of this group will not be so temporary, and that the number of refugees will probably increase. The following three factors are involved here:

Factor 1: Course of the war. Given the expectations about the duration of the war and the most probable final situation, account must be taken of the limited possibilities for return and of possible new refugee flows from Ukraine.

Factor 2: Onward migration. Ukrainian refugees do not automatically apply for temporary protection in the first country of arrival. Migration intentions and preferred destination countries play a major role and may result in significant onward migration, particularly to Germany.

Factor 3: Return intentions. Besides the actual possibility to be able to return, and the economic situation in Ukraine itself, migration intentions and integration realities will be a factor in the return decisions of Ukrainian refugees. It emerges from research that one in four Ukrainians already wanted to migrate prior to the war, and that women and children are relatively less inclined to return particularly when the duration of their stay increases. In the case of this specific group, with many Ukrainian women who are separated from their husbands, options for family reunion will play a major role in these decisions.

The recommendation is to monitor these critical factors for the number of refugees and the expected duration of their stay, and to take account in policy and in strategic communication of the scenario that a significant proportion of the refugees will stay for a longer period of time. This means that a transition is needed from crisis management and a short-term orientation to more long-term policy and planning for structural capacity and support, both at a European level and in the EU Member States.