Return intentions form a third important factor affecting the number of refugees who have to be protected in EU Member States and the duration of this protection. When the Russian advance stagnated at the start of April and the attacks on the major cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv were suspended, many Ukrainians could return. As of 23 June, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that around 5.5 million displaced Ukrainians had returned to their home region. Of the Ukrainians who had fled abroad, only 10% returned.
It is of course extremely difficult for people who have only just fled to estimate whether and when they will be able to return. They are confronted with trauma, have had to leave family members, relatives and possessions behind, their homes have possibly been destroyed, and they are usually torn between, on the one hand, the need for safety, particularly for their children, and on the other, feelings of solidarity and patriotism.
Ukrainian refugees therefore do not automatically register for temporary protection in the first country of arrival. Migration intentions and preferred destination countries play a major role and may result in significant onward migration, particularly to Germany.
At the same time, the Gallup polls mentioned above reveal that, even prior to the 24th of February, one in four Ukrainians would like to migrate if the opportunity arose. This is not surprising, with the continuing violence in the east of the country since 2014, significantly lower living standards than in the European Union, severe inequality and persistent corruption, and at the same time the entrepreneurial spirit to work abroad as many before them were already doing. This means that now people from Ukraine have fled, this original wish of one in four to migrate will play a role in the decision on whether or not to return if the opportunity to do so arises. Impressions based on individual discussions that ‘all Ukrainian refugees want to return’ are in any event not supported by this study of migration intentions. A recent poll in Poland confirms these findings: of the roughly 3.2 million Ukrainians in Poland, 58% indicated that they would remain as long as the conflict continues, while 27% said they did not want to return to Ukraine at all.[13]
Source: ZDF, 11 July 2022
The great majority of Ukrainian refugees, both in the country and abroad, has no intention of returning home in the short term,[14] which given the destruction and the continuing uncertainty about the course of the war is unsurprising. In addition to this, mainly women and children have fled until now, and only very few men between 18 and 60 have been able to leave the country, due to the declared state of emergency. A significant number has already found employment; for example, in the Netherlands, approximately 40% of all Ukrainian refugees were working for Dutch employers in August.[15] It emerges from previous research into re-migration patterns that it is in fact women and children who have a relatively low probability of returning, especially the longer the war lasts and children put down roots at school.[16] As, moreover, a quarter of Ukrainians were already considering migration before the war, it may be assumed that when the restriction on the departure of men is removed, part of the family reunion will take place towards Western Europe rather than in the other direction.
Besides the possibility to be able to return, migration intentions and integration realities will be a factor in the decisions of Ukrainian refugees to return. It emerges from research that one in four Ukrainians already wanted to emigrate prior to the war, and that women and children are relatively less inclined to return particularly when the duration of their stay increases. In the case of this particular group, with many Ukrainian women who are separated from their husbands, possibilities for family reunion will play a major role in these decisions.