In the Ukrainian refugee crisis resulting from the Russian invasion on February 24th, 2022, Europe is facing the greatest protection mission in its own region since the Second World War. The European Union’s historic decision to invoke the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time prevented the asylum systems in European countries from coming under extreme pressure, and gave displaced persons clarity relatively quickly about a temporary residence permit including access to the labour market and to education for minors. Until now, a nett total of over 6.9 million Ukrainians have fled their country, of whom over 3.9 million refugees have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in European countries. Almost 500.000 Ukrainians have not yet registered for temporary protection, and are using their right to travel in the European Union (EU) without a visa for three months.[1]

EU countries are still deeply enmeshed in this crisis mode, providing essential temporary accommodation and services. Yet at the same time, a number of factors is forcing the realisation that for a significant proportion of this group the protection will not be so temporary, and that the number of refugees will probably increase. The net balance of new or returning refugees to and from Europe will depend on three main factors: (1) the course of the conflict – considering the intensity and duration of fighting, as well as the area occupied by Russia – and economic prospects in Ukraine; (2) onward migration from the initial country of arrival to other European countries; and (3) the migration and return intentions of the Ukrainian refugees. The recommendation is to monitor these critical factors about the number of refugees and the expected duration of their stay, and to take into account in policy and in strategic communication that a significant proportion of the refugees will remain in EU countries for a longer period of time. This means that a transition is needed from crisis management and a short-term orientation to more long-term policy and planning for structural capacity and support, both at European and Member State level.