Introduction
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Europe was shaken to its core in February 2022, as Russian tanks rolled over Ukraine’s borders. Although at the time Russia’s war against Ukraine was entering its ninth year, since the annexation of Crimea occurred and hostilities in the Donbas began in 2014, it was the moment of this full-scale invasion that marked a turning point for many (Western) European countries, and became a catalyst for a political (re)orientation already underway in others. Some countries reacted early and decisively by condemning the Russian aggression, others did not, or made their choices more apprehensively and with delay, and others attempted to avoid the dichotomy altogether and continue a balancing act driven by pragmatism, to varying degrees of success.

These choices and their implications have had far-reaching consequences for the relations among European countries and the larger regional dynamic. To understand these changes and shifts, this brief presents an interactive geopolitical map of the region (see figure 1). At its core are three non-EU Eastern European countries that have been at the centre of recent developments - Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova – and their relationships among each other, with key regional actors, and with major global powers.[1] In mapping these relationships the brief builds on three main questions:

1.
What is the state of relations between Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova?
2.
How do these countries relate to regional and great powers?
3.
What ramifications do the geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe have for the EU approach towards the region?

The mapping reveals several dynamics that are worth a closer look, and are discussed in the present brief. It should be noted that the brief does not consider all of the bilateral relationships or clusters in-depth, but readers are invited to explore them on their own by using the interactive mapping in the online tool Kumu. The brief concludes with recommendations for the EU and European policymakers for navigating geopolitical complexities in Eastern Europe.[2]

Figure 1
Interactive mapping of Eastern Europe

Open the geopolitical mapping in full-view mode

The present policy brief is part of a series that has also featured geopolitical mappings of the Western Balkans, South Caucasus and Central Asia, all using the Clingendael Institute methodology.[3],[4]

These three countries will be referred to as “core countries” throughout this paper based on the fact that they were chosen to be at the centre of this specific mapping effort. This is not to imply that there is a political, geographical or philosophical reason to consider them as the core countries of Eastern Europe.
The authors would like to thank Wouter Zweers, Niels Drost and Kaspar Pucek for their feedback throughout the mapping and writing process. We would also like to thank all those who contributed to this study by filling out the expert survey (see the annex for an overview of the contributors who explicitly consented to have their name listed).
Bob Deen, Wouter Zweers & Camille Linder, The EU in the South Caucasus, Clingendael, March 2023; Niels Drost and Giulia Cretti, Central Asia emerging from the shadows, Clingendael January 2025; Wouter Zweers, Geopolitically mapping the Western Balkans, Clingendael, August 2025.
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The core countries