European defence: the urgency of shifting to fifth gear
An outlook on the Von der Leyen Commission II
- For continued military support to Ukraine, air and missile defence is the top priority in view of the large-scale use of drones and missiles by Russia at the front line and at longer distances.
- To enhance self-reliance in defence, Europe’s defence-industrial priorities should continuously be based on the NATO requirements for collective defence.
- A Defence Industrial Action Plan is needed to strengthen the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, including measures to address three key conditions: long-term contracts, prioritised access to resources, and attracting skilled labourers.
- All forms of financing to increase Europe’s military capabilities should be explored, from raising the ceiling in the next Multi-annual Financial Framework (2028-2034) to borrowing money for EU funding, and an ex-EU intergovernmental format allowing for participation by non-EU countries, such as the United Kingdom.
The Munich Security Conference of mid-February 2025 has been ‘an electroshock’ for Europe, according to President Macron. The European approach to the war in Ukraine – continued support until a peace agreement is reached that is acceptable to Kyiv – has been pushed aside by the unilateral initiative of the Trump administration to strike a quick deal with Moscow. President Zelensky’s visit to the White House on 28 February has further disturbed Ukraine’s relations with the US, while European leaders have repeated their strong support to continued assistance to the country.
At the same time, Washington has further stepped up its pressure on Europe to take responsibility for its own security by at least doubling its defence expenditure. Transatlantic relations have entered a new era: urgently, Europe must boost its defence investments, strengthen its military capabilities and increase its defence industrial production. The EU is playing an increasingly central role in supporting Ukraine, but it might have to deliver even more, also depending on the decisions of the US. The challenge is now to allocate more money and to accelerate the adaptation of the European defence industry.
This policy brief explores the challenges and opportunities for building a stronger and more capable European defence, outlining concrete steps in four key areas: military support for Ukraine, capability development, the defence industry, and financing. These pillars align with the strategic objectives of the Second Von der Leyen Commission and will be reflected in the forthcoming White Paper on the Future of European Defence. The brief concludes with recommendations for the Netherlands to contribute to enhancing Europe’s ability to respond to current and future security threats while advancing its role as a more effective defence actor within NATO and beyond.
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