Clingendael Barometer: From Russia shock to Hamas shock

The Clingendael Foreign Affairs Barometer annually identifies what sources of concern and hope the Dutch population perceives in the international environment. The main findings at the beginning of 2024 are:

• Year on year, Dutch citizens primarily fear threats that directly affect the community: cyber sabotage of critical infrastructure in the Netherlands ranks first once again
• Dutch people fear that the threats they consider most impactful will actually occur within five years
• Migration-related developments and Islamist terrorism rank high on the threat list
• The threat of war is also prominently felt
• There is relatively little attention for other geopolitical developments
• International protectionism and the possible decoupling from China are very low-ranking threats
• EU enlargement to include Ukraine and the Western Balkans offers little hope
• The climate perspective seems to be changing, with hopes primarily being pinned on adaptation to climate change
• Many high-scoring threats are accompanied by corresponding high-scoring developments in the hope rankings: expectations regarding resilience policies are high
• There is less correspondence between perceived threat and potential solutions in the area of migration
• The Dutch population is significantly divided. Hopes and fears with regard to international developments increasingly underlie ideological and political schisms
• The Dutch population is more united in its hopes than in its threat perceptions

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