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The Western Balkans have increasingly become a stage for broader geopolitical competition, particularly reflecting the deepening rift between the West and Russia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Figure 4). While the EU and, to a lesser extent, the United States, remain invested in the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans, Russia seeks to obstruct that process and boost its own foothold in the region. In contrast to the EU’s institutional approach, Russia favours a more personalised strategy. It cultivates relationships with individual political leaders – most notably in Serbia and Republika Srpska – as key gateways into the region. Moscow continues to successfully wield influence on the WB6 countries, employing a range of informal networks including political proxies, the Orthodox Church, oligarchs and malign groups, as well as energy leverage.[14] Through these instruments, Russia has failed to block, but succeeded in delaying the region’s EU integration and democratic consolidation.
The global power rivalry described above translates into regional disputes. Both Russia and China stand firmly behind Serbia in its non-recognition of Kosovo, including in the UN Security Council (UNSC). The EU and the US, on the other hand, remain steadfast in supporting Kosovo’s self-determination rights and state-building process. For their part, the WB6 leaders seek backing from international powers to bolster their political positions in regional or domestic disputes.
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On BiH (Figure 5), Russia presents itself as a key ally of Republika Srpska. While only representing a sub-state entity, RS President Milorad Dodik has met Putin on numerous occasions during the past few years. Russia and China support Dodik in his dismissal of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), an international representative with far-reaching decision-making powers in BiH.[15] Conversely, the US and EU deem the OHR a necessary burden. This is exactly because RS secessionist ambitions and broader political tensions continue to undermine Bosnia’s Dayton constitution and, thereby, the stability of the country.
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Central to global geopolitical competition in the region is Serbia (Figure 6). The country effectively balances between East and West – pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at EU accession, while simultaneously maintaining close ties with Russia and China. In past years, President Vučić espoused the strength of his ‘steel friendship’ with Xi Jinping, stood proudly next to Vladimir Putin on the 9th of May victory parade in Moscow, and ensured European Council President Costa his “full commitment” to Serbia’s EU accession.[16] He did so when all the while he was organising a Non-Aligned Movement summit in Belgrade, cautiously flirting with the BRICS, and making real estate deals with the Trump family and the Gulf states.[17]
Serbia’s balancing act shows that it would be a misconception to think that the Western Balkans are merely pawns in a larger geopolitical game driven by powerful global actors. Local leaders have increasingly shown their capacity to pick their sides carefully, adjusting their rhetoric accordingly. Aware of global and regional powers’ geopolitical interests in their countries, leaders such as Serbia’s Vucic and Albania’s Rama have learned to recognize potential allies and exploit local narratives and issues for political gain. Apart from Serbia’s balancing act, the recent energy deal between Italy, Albania and the UAE provides a case in point. Tirana serves as the key link in the deal and benefits from both sides, receiving renewable energy investments from Abu-Dhabi while exporting produced electricity to Rome.[18] The region’s politics are thus shaped not only by external powers but by local actors who capitalise on the most advantageous offers. External influence ultimately depends on convergence with local interests.