This analysis has so far treated the West – including the EU, NATO, and the US - as a bloc of actors with broadly aligned interests. Yet, the United States’ role in the Balkans (Figure 8) has become increasingly unpredictable, shifting from a democracy-driven to a more transactional approach. With the US-China rivalry, the fighting in the Middle East and the continuing Russian war of aggression against Ukraine at the top of the US foreign policy agenda, the Western Balkans seem to have ended up much lower. Following its inauguration, the second Trump administration took some time to make senior appointments related to the Balkans, both in Washington and at US embassies in the region - raising doubts about the consistency of continued US engagement.[20]
In the meantime, the US - or rather the Trump family - appears eager to reap the benefits of investment opportunities in the Balkans. The most prominent examples include Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner developing luxury tourist resorts on Albania’s coastline, as well as plans for a Trump Tower on the site of the former Yugoslav Ministry of Defence in Belgrade. Owing to environmental, cultural heritage, and corruption concerns, both projects remain controversial amongst the citizens of these countries.[21]
Washington’s broader potential disengagement from European security affairs could also affect the Balkans. While rumours of disengagement have been rebuffed by the US mission to NATO, various media have reported how European countries fear a potential US military pullback from Europe, including from NATO’s KFOR mission in Kosovo.[22] The increased uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy means that the EU will need to prepare for taking greater responsibility for European security, including in the Balkans. If the EU does not stand ready to do so, other actors may try to fill a potential diplomatic or security void left by a less active United States.
At the same time, President Trump’s self-styled posture as a peacemaker means that any opportunity for a swift foreign policy win could prompt meaningful or less meaningful renewed US engagement the region. In fact, during and after the NATO summit in June 2025, Trump spuriously claimed that his administration had managed to prevent a military clash between Kosovo and Serbia.[23]