Merchants, missionaries, economic miracles, real estate brokers, and activist shareholders – these are not labels one would typically assign to state actors. Yet, in today’s increasingly geopolitically complex world, global, regional, and local powers perform (combinations of) such functions in the Southeast European region colloquially referred to as the Western Balkans: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine – taking place against the backdrop of an increasingly fragmented world order – does not only bear consequences for the relations between global powers. It especially impacts relations in regions such as the Western Balkans, where the interests of a myriad of powers collide. While the 'Western Balkans Six' (WB6) are formally on track to join the European Union (EU), Russia, Türkiye, the Gulf States and others are equally intent on strengthening their foothold in the region. But even the EU’s approach is not uniform, as EU Member States like Hungary or Italy pursue their own interests towards their Balkan neighbours.
The complexities of shifting international relations in regions like the Western Balkans are not only of academic interest. To formulate effective policies and strategies, the EU and its Member States must acquire a solid ability to interpret evolving geopolitical dynamics accurately. That is especially the case for a region that is 20 years into an EU accession process which has often been described as a key test case for EU foreign policy capability.[1]
To understand the geopolitical intricacies of the Western Balkans, this policy brief provides an interactive geopolitical mapping of the WB6 (Figure 1). It thereby addresses three research questions. First, what is the state of relations between the countries in the Western Balkans? Second, how do the Balkan countries relate to regional and major powers? Third, what ramifications do geopolitical dynamics in the Balkans have for the EU approach towards the region?
Following the Clingendael Institute’s geopolitical mapping methodology,[2] the brief examines political relations and economic, security and social interactions between the countries of the Western Balkans, influential regional actors, and great powers. It employs several sub-mappings that lay out key present-day dynamics. Readers can open the interactive mapping in the online tool Kumu to explore sub-mappings and descriptions of bilateral relations between all actors – the latter are not included in the brief itself. The brief concludes with recommendations for the EU and its Member States to navigate geopolitical complexities in the Western Balkans.[3]
Open the geopolitical mapping in full-view mode
Clingendael has developed a geopolitical mapping methodology to capture and measure changing geopolitical relations between countries, focussing on a core region and including relevant regional and global powers. As part of this methodology, we sent out a survey to 193 experts in international relations in Southeast Europe, asking them to score bilateral relations on two variables: The quality of political relations between governments, and the intensity of the economic, security and societal interaction between countries. This yielded 85 responses (see the annexes). The outcomes have been used to create the interactive geopolitical mapping in Kumu as presented in the paper. As such, the mapping reflects the geopolitical situation at the time of the data acquisition, which took place between 28 April and 14 May 2025. This policy brief is part of a series of geopolitical mappings of various regions. Earlier publications dealt with the South Caucasus and Central Asia, while upcoming mappings will include Eastern Europe (in the autumn of 2025) and other regions in 2026.