The State of Autocratisation in the European Neighbourhood & Case-selection

This report has been published under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme

The Horizon Europe research project RED-SPINEL (2023-2025) investigates the growing dissensus surrounding liberal democracy and the rule of law within and beyond the European Union. The project examines the evolution of policy instruments and legal mechanisms at the EU level in response to this dissensus. Researchers from seven universities and four non-academic institutions collaborate to explore the nature of this dissensus, how EU institutions have responded, and the implications for EU and Member State policy instruments.

This present report maps and identifies autocratisation trends in EU's neighbourhood, particularly after 2008, using the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) V-Dem. It includes detailed case studies of various countries in the EU's Southern and Eastern neighbourhoods and EU enlargement countries, including Israel, Tunisia, Ukraine, Armenia, Serbia, North Macedonia and Turkey. The report identifies a general decline in democracy scores across regions since the mid-2000s. This decline is attributed to various regional factors, including the global financial crisis, the Arab Spring, the rise of nationalist and populist movements, and geopolitical tensions.

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