Blinking, biding or bombing?

Major drivers of US Middle East policy will likely remain the same even under a Biden presidency. Hence, the US role in a number of conflicts across the region may not initially vary that much. The possible exception is a return to the nuclear deal with Iran. The EU should facilitate such a step to reduce the risk of region-wide conflict and use it as a precursor to initiate a regional security initiative that can address deeper security perceptions, threats and force postures. In parallel, it ought to reconfigure its Syria strategy to make it more difficult for Tehran to leverage any gains from a return to the nuclear deal in Syria. The EU can achieve this, for example, by providing greater support for Turkey in Idlib and for the Syrian Kurds in the northeast.

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