Strategic Foresight

Reports and papers

Strategic Monitor 2017 - Crises: fragile states

27 Feb 2017 - 16:19
Source: EpicTimes

This thematic study engages with the problem of crises for Europe. It applies a fragility lens to the problem since it is generally believed that fragile states are at a greater risk of causing security problems such as terrorism, regionalisation of conflict, CBRN proliferation, organised crime and mass migration. The contribution starts with a threat assessment for 2021 based on trend data from the past decade: what trends can be discerned and what do they mean for European security? Next, a brief analysis is given of international cooperation in this field: which actors are important? Above all, how is the rules-based system developing in this area? The contribution concludes with a comparison in which the question is asked whether the global system will be able to cope with the future threats.‍