Kars de Bruijne

Research Fellow


  • Security and Justice
  • Strategic Foresight

Kars de Bruijne is a research fellow at the Security Cluster of the Clingendael Research Department. Kars holds a PhD on rationalist explanations for civil conflict with a focus on West-Africa and the Balkans, an MPhil in Modern History and International Relations (cum laude) and a BA in International Relations and a BA in Philosophy. His research is centered on civil conflict, strategic foresight and research methods. He specialises in military optimism during civil conflict, elite-perceptions, subnational governance and conflict data. In the latter capacity he is also a Senior Researcher at the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset Project (ACLED). At Clingendael he is in charge of the Strategic Foresight Programme (trend-analysis, horizon-scanning, alerting, scenarios and world order questions) where he advances the use of structured expert judgement, founded on a solid evidence-base.

His research is characterised by mixed-methods involving both qualitative (interviews, content analysis, process tracing, archival research, QCA) and quantitative evidence (geo-referenced conflict data and regression analysis). He conducted fieldwork among leading commanders and vanguards of the Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone. Previously he worked at the Center for European Security Studies, the University of Groningen (Lecturer) and briefly at the University of Sussex (Post-Doctoral fellow). He carried out consultancies for the OECD (New Deal on the engagement of fragile states) and DFID/Welcome Trust (on health messaging during the Ebola crises).

My work



Strategic Foresight

Global Security Pulse: Migration & Security

31 May 2018 - 15:23
Strategic Foresight

Global Security Pulse: Interstate military competition

26 April 2018 - 17:55
Strategic Foresight

Strategische Monitor 2017-2018

13 April 2018 - 14:54
Strategic Foresight

Spillover in the multi-order

31 January 2018 - 13:55
Strategic Foresight

Of flour, yeast and water - A recipe for (Syrian) conflict data

30 January 2018 - 13:48
Strategic Foresight

Bias in the analysis of political violence

18 January 2018 - 13:41
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