Strategic Foresight

Masterclass Risk Management
Europe/Amsterdam 02 2016 14:00
Source: Lemsipmatt / Flickr

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Agile companies are more successful than others because they timely anticipate on external developments. In a global environment that can change overnight, business models can become obsolete or dominant within years or even months. Understanding the risk and opportunities caused by for instance geopolitics, macro-economic trends and climate change should therefore be a key competency of strategic decision makers, risk managers and supervisors. Although external uncertainty is addressed in boardrooms, only a few companies systematically manage these drivers for change.

In this masterclass BDO and the Clingendael Institute invite you to actively participate in discussions and share your views on the need for managing external risks. And managing them accordingly to manage stakeholder expectations. We, the Clingendael Institute and BDO Risk Advisory Services hope to inspire you by sharing best practices, views and experiences.


14.00 - 14.30 Commencement

Welcome and introduction
By John Hijmans (Board member BDO Advisory)
• Opening remarks
• Background cooperation Clingendael and BDO Advisory
• Purpose and objectives masterclass
• Need for change
• Introduction programme and presenters

Key note 1: How to timely identify and recognize relevant external developments and risks: geopolitical factors
By Frans-Paul van der Putten (Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute) and a business case from Shell by Mallika Ishwaran, Senior Economist Shell.
• Understanding global dynamics
• Analysing consequences and interdependencies
• Assuring reliable data
• Examples: Geopolitics and China
• Business Case: Shell

Key note 2: How to apply external developments and risks in strategic decision making?
By Arnout van der Veer (former Chief Risk Officer of Reed Elsevier)
• Increasing agility
• Using technology to develop and maintain scenarios
• Scenario planning and real options
• Using trigger events
• Business Case: Reed Elsevier

Break 15.45-16.15

Key note 3: How to deal with external risks in short term business planning?
By Johan Tijhuis (Operational Risk Director Arcadis) and Emanuel van Zandvoort (partner Risk Advisory Services)
• Managing different types of risk
• Understanding and applying risk appetite
• Implementing Risk Based Performance Management
• Business Case: Arcadis

Break-out sessions - 3 groups
By Clingendael Institute and BDO Risk Advisory Services
• What are the benefits for your organization of applying external risk information in decision making?
• What is your role as risk manager, financial or strategist in dealing with external uncertainty?
• What do you need to convince decision makers to systematically deal with external risk information?
• What do you think is the best approach for embedding external risk management in your organization?

Plenair feedback and discussions
By Frans-Paul van der Putten, Arnout van der Veer and Emanuel van Zandvoort
• Added value of understanding external developments
• Accountability and roles
• Best practices and need for change

Wrap up and closing
By John Hijmans (Board member BDO Advisory)
• Main take-aways
• Evaluation and next steps

18.00 - 19.30 Walking diner