Iran in transition: The Islamic Republic is no more while it lives on

Welcome to this Clingendael blog series ‘Iran in transition’. It targets a global audience of readers interested in Iran and aims to contribute to open and substantiated debate about possible socio-political directions the country might take. The blog series departs from the assumption that change in the Islamic Republic has become inevitable given the acceleration of protest frequency and the impact of the 2022-2023 protests on the legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Iran has effectively entered a state of transition.

The blog series understands ‘transition’ as a trajectory of change of which the direction, velocity and linearity can shift abruptly (or not) as the destination is yet unknown. Change may recreate a version of the past, innovate a different future or reshape society in another fashion. It does not have to be progressive, but is simply unknown. This creates risks of uncertainty (what will happen and to whom) and unpredictability (when and how things will happen). The blog tracks the evolution of Iran’s transition via four indicators: intra-elite dynamics, state-society relations, foreign policy and the economic situation. Blog #1 develops these indicators in more detail.

Please choose and read a blog on the left side of the page.