Climate Change Increases Likelihood of Violent Extremism

Development and security cannot do without the other. It is not enough to counter violent extremism by addressing the symptoms; understanding and focusing on root causes, in regions such as the Western Sahel, is essential to countering violent extremism.

Countries in the Western Sahel suffer from the consequences of climate change: increasing droughts and water shortages make it harder for 50 million people – who depend on agriculture and livestock for their survival – to support their families. Joining a non-state armed group, for income and food, becomes ‘a tempting, or sometimes even the only, alternative.’

To address these challenges, the authors propose five recommendations:

1. Routinise and institutionalise attention to climate change in security institutions
2. Factor in (counter)violent extremism and counterterrorism into climate change efforts
3. Create a comprehensive early warning mechanism
4. Ensure comprehensive engagements: terrorist threats are not only a military issue, addressing economic and financial sources, online recruitment, supply chains, and climate change is essential for strong stabilisation efforts
5. Improve regional cooperation

Read the full policy brief.