European defence in the French elections

Keep calm and carry on or keep calm and get out

Defence has gained a prominent place in the debates for the presidential elections. Although not without precedent, this topic has rarely been so central as nowadays. The reasons underpinning this phenomenon are numerous.

First, France is engaged in various highly visible military operations including the Barkhane operation in the Sahel, the Sentinelle operation on the mainland, and airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. Second, the security environment is very volatile with the threat posed by terrorism and the resurgence of Russia, putting military matters under the limelight.

Finally, the main candidates disagree on how to manage France’s alliances, be it the EU with the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) or NATO. On this point, candidates converge in the assertion that France does not get enough support from its European allies. This thinking is not new but once more significant now that Donald Trump has become the U.S. president. However, whoever wins the election has no crystal-clear plan about how to steer European defence forward.

What the candidates propose
The French elections are monitored very carefully abroad. The outcome has rarely, if ever, looked so unpredictable only days before the first round. Four candidates indeed find themselves so close in the polls that all four can realistically aim to be in the second round. Among them, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are openly questioning the relevance of belonging to the European Union and to NATO. Nervousness across Europe is therefore understandable considering France’s political, diplomatic and military weight in Europe.

François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron – not to mention Benoît Hamon, although his chances to stand in the second round are slim – would reassure French partners when it comes to Paris’s commitment to European defence. They differ on which method to favour but they agree that more efforts are necessary at the European level.

François Fillon has repeatedly emphasised the importance of strong bilateral relations with the United Kingdom – regardless of Brexit – and Germany. He also advocates “a European alliance of defence” although he has not clarified what that would entail. It would likely resemble the situation that Europe is in today with an additional push for cooperation when it comes to mutualising the costs of military operations and supporting European defence’s technological and industrial base. One certainty is that it would not give additional prerogatives to centralised institutions.

Vivien Pertusot is an Associate Researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). He tweets at @VPertusot.

This article is published with the support of the Adessium Foundation.