The parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 1st will not only decide its course for the next four years but also its longer-term future. These are one of the most contested elections, where the current ruling party - the United National Movement (UNM) led by President Saakashvili - is facing a serious challenge from the Georgia Dream Coalition led by one of the richest man of the country (and the world) - Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The government of President Saakashvili has enacted important economic and public administration reforms since he came to power after the Rose revolution in 2003. Georgia is now a safe, modernizing country, with a competent bureaucracy. However, government is criticized of committing human rights abuses, failing to guarantee the political independence of the judiciary and in intimidating political opponents.
Most political parties, able to seriously contest the elections, say they are committed to bring Georgia closer to Europe and that they are true to democratic principles. Their conduct at the polls will show the true value of their commitments. Elections will also test the efficacy of EU's regional policy which aims to foster democratic reforms and aid in development. The EU is deeply involved in Georgia and its position might even be a decider amidst the most severe political fracturing already in place and electoral disputes that might arise.
A polarized political landscape
Despite several important reforms that the country had undertaken in recent years, its political party system remains too weak. Most parties lack internal democracy and are organized around single individuals. Opposition parties have traditionally remained beyond a policy-making orbit and failed to come to power if not by revolutionary changes. Ruling parties would usually enjoy super majorities and merge with the state. Not one had ever survived an electoral set-back. The achievements Georgia is proud of can easily be undermined by such political vulnerabilities. No wonder that the Failed State Index mentioned "Factionalized Elites" as the country's biggest risk (9.1 on a scale of 10 in 2012). Without strong political parties, the quality of the Georgian democracy will depend on the elites and the determination of international community to remain involved.
Political tensions that were already testing the foundations of Georgian political society were elevated, when the public was shocked by the videos revealing the abuse and humiliation of inmates in the Georgian prisons. Two ministers have resigned and more than a dozen prison officials apprehended. The opposition called for the president's resignation and is confident it will win the parliamentary elections. A tense and charged political environment is now reigning in Georgia. Coupled with the weak political party landscape and possible electoral disputes this can easily push the country into anarchy and violence.
A path of consensus or more drama?
The very competitive nature of these elections might as well produce an interesting future for Georgia. In this future, coming second in the elections is no longer a pretext for the dissolution of the party or for enduring political repression. Instead, power can be contested and shared between political parties, and consensus will be rewarded. "The winner does not take it all". In other words, there are relative, not absolute gains and these gains can be spread between different players. The UNM is proud of its achievements in reforming the defunct state. As a result, the party has gained huge executive influence and can wield important administrative resources. The best way to use this influence would be not for partisan gains. Georgia Dream Coalition now unifies most opposition parties and represents a large number of critically minded citizens. It has a sponsor in the face of a one single man able to buy Georgia's yearly budget. The best use of such personal wealth is also its none-use for partisan and political aims. These elections therefore might herald the times when we see the formation of several political centers, which recognize that they are now incapable of "annihilating" the opponent. This will likely force them to take the path of consensus and co-existence and catapult Georgian politics from its vendetta past into a more cooperative future.
The two big camps of Saakashvili and Ivanishvili could strike an important consensus on limiting the applications of their powers for rational reasons of accruing relative gains in the absence of absolute ones. In fact, such a consensus might assert itself independently of their political wills - as a fact of life. But the more conscious the choice, the speedier the political development will be. And for Georgia, time matters. If these elections can produce such a solution, whether by agreement or as a matter of fact, it will then establish a political milestone which will help enlighten Georgian political life for years to come.
There is another story of what can unfold. In this story, contenders cling to their advantages of power and wealth - now and in the months to come. Broadcasts of secretly tapped audio-visual material of the controversial conversations of Georgian politicians that are already now being fed to the public incite unrest, divide and undermine political class in the aftermath of the elections. Public trust in the political process is broken, further eroding a confidence in political parties and opening Georgia to a radical populism to make sway. Parliament becomes a scene of energetic and meaningless speeches aimed less at seeing policy issues resolved and more at disparaging opponents. Media landscape remains what it is already - digitized press service of powerful men. The international community will inwillingly find itself in the role of a reluctant arbiter, caught between competing interests. In the end, all turns out as it must: the public feels even worse could have happened and was averted. Chilling drama has unfolded, we've seen the show to its full. The mountain had labored and produced a mouse.
Levan Tsutskiridze heads the Georgian office of the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD). NIMD Georgia supports party development and runs a number of regional democracy schools. It recently produced a special website that allows voters to compare the programmes of all relevant parties for the parliamentary elections of October 1th.
Meer achtergrondinformatie en actuele nieuwsberichten over Georgië vindt u hier op de website van Europa-nu.
