Medvedev's strategy not beneficial for improved relations with the West

On 12 May 2009 Russian President Medvedev signed a decree approving the 'National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020' (further: NSS). The NSS is a political or grand strategy, the overarching security document of Moscow's internal and external security policy. Domestically, the NSS demonstrates realism but regarding international security the document falls back on traditional anti-Western rhetoric. The NSS points out that in order to apply the reset button of the Obama administration in Russian-Western relations the Russian mindset should be encouraged to change from a focus on threats to one of cooperation.

The NSS 2009 replaces the National Security Concepts of 1997 (Yeltsin) and 2000 (Putin) and is the guideline for major documents such as the Foreign Policy Concept and the Military Doctrine. The NSS comprises chapters on developments in international security, national interests, priorities and threats, and ensuring national security in the field of defence, social security, welfare of citizens, economy, science-technology-education, health care, culture, and environment.

Concerning national interests and priorities the document states defence and state and civil security as the first priorities for Russia's national security, followed by social-economic aspects such as increasing the quality of life and economic growth. According to the NSS the conditions of national security depend firstly on the country's economic potential. In the military field the paper mentions that parity with the USA on strategic nuclear weapons should be gained or maintained. Furthermore, that Russia should develop into a global power, since it is already one of the leading powers influencing world processes. The NSS identifies interdependence between civil stability and national security, by stating that social-economic development is equally important as military security. Another interest is the protection of Russian citizens in the so-called 'Near Abroad' i.e. the former Soviet Union region.

Traditionally, a crucial element of Russian strategic policy papers is threat perception. As to threats Medvedev's strategy points out the policy of a number of leading countries, aimed at military supremacy by building up especially nuclear but also conventional strategic arms, unilateral development of anti-ballistic missile defence and militarization of space, which may trigger a new arms race. Another threat is NATO's expansion near Russia's borders and attempts to grant the military alliance a global role. Energy security is now also brought in as a threat, because competition for energy resources may create tension, that can escalate into the use of military force near the borders of Russia and its allies. In addition to external threats, the document also lists domestic problems, such as terrorism, separatism, radicalism, extremism, organised crime, corruption. The danger of worldwide pandemics is also mentioned in the strategy.

As was the case with its predecessor, Putin's National Security Concept of 2000, reflecting the impact of the Kosovo conflict of 1999, Medvedev's strategy also exhibits current policy priorities. For instance by rejecting further enlargement of NATO and the US missile defence shield in Europe, by promoting a new European security architecture, and by underlining the need for modernization the armed forces. Another vital and recurring policy point is the protection of Russian citizens in the Near Abroad. This issue was used by Moscow to legitimize its invasion of Georgia in August 2008. The reference in the NSS to Russian military contingents in conflict areas promoting international stability is probably also related to the current situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Energy has been gaining weight in recent Russian security thinking. In this strategy energy is mentioned as a power instrument but also as a strategic security asset, stating that increasingly scarce energy resources might possibly encourage others to attempt to control those of Russia, which may lead to armed conflicts. In addition to regions such as Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, the Arctic region is also mentioned as a prime area for energy. This corresponds with the Kremlin's recently published 2020 strategy on the Arctic. According to the NSS the main military threats come from the West, i.e. the USA and NATO. The issue of nuclear arms is ambiguous. On the one hand Russia needs (modernization of) its strategic nuclear deterrence, to counterbalance its weak conventional forces and to stress its position as a super power. Hence, the strategy focuses at maintaining nuclear parity with the USA in reply to its European missile shield and an assumed US nuclear strike doctrine. On the other hand the strategy proposes nuclear disarmament. Since a large part of Russia's nuclear deterrent is obsolete the talks with the USA on nuclear reductions, that were recently started, will probably be aimed at destructing the outdated weapons and maintaining Moscow's modern nuclear arms.

The NSS provides a realistic view of Russia's domestic security situation and covers a wide range of issues. However, when it comes to external security threats an overload of (military) threats from the West demonstrates the traditional approach of Russian security thinking of encirclement by enemies, fear for the alien and a necessity to seek allies and create buffer zones against such perils. Consequently, Medvedev's strategy can be considered as a continuation of Russia's assertive policy as started and conducted by Putin. What should the West do with this statement? In order to effectively press the reset button the USA and Europe need to enhance their talks with Moscow and discuss with Russian officials in public the alleged facts of Western threats to Russia. Convincing the Kremlin to stop its zero-sum security policy of the 19th century and to enter the realities of the 21st century is the main challenge that lies ahead for Western policy makers.