The future of Sudan is uncertain. At present the international community, governments, international organisations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and making sure an election and referendum take place. Consequently, little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on.
This report describes four possible scenarios for the future of Sudan, defined by two key uncertainties: 1) In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? 2) In 2012, will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war?
The four scenarios are:
- The Last War Revisited? (War - United)
- Border Wars (War - Secession)
- CPA Hurray! (No War - United)
- Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia? (No War - Secession)
The material presented in the report is based on input from a broad range of local and international non-governmental organisations, faith groups, politicians, government officials, civil society organisations and others, and was mainly gathered during workshops in Malakal, Juba, Bor and Khartoum in May and June 2009.
The report is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Clingendael Institute, commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid. Its purpose is to contribute to the debate about how to stimulate peace, security and development in Sudan and to present options for international action.