Clingendael Radar - new and novel developments to watch

A lot of today’s issues have recently caught many by surprise, from the annexation of Crimea, to Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. The Clingendael Radar Series aims to identify some of tomorrow’s key security problems, to help foresee upcoming issues and prepare for them.

The Clingendael Radar is a horizon scan from the Clingendael Strategic Foresight Programme focusing on threats to EU security in the next five years. It uses various techniques ranging from the manual scanning of recent and relevant literature, conferences organised by relevant organisations, and a scan of Twitter feeds and validated expert input. We select developments based upon their novelty and potential impact on European security.

Our latest Terrorism Radar (Q4 2017) found four key upcoming threats to the EU’s security, regarding ISIS women and returnees from the Balkans, the threat posed by far-right terrorists due to their increasing organisation, and Ukraine as a potential training ground for terrorists of all backgrounds. It also features an assessment of the threat for the next five years, predicting an increase in terrorist attacks in Europe. Bibi van Ginkel contributed to this radar as expert in this field.

Our latest Climate Radar (Q4 2017) found four key upcoming threats to EU security: the misuse of geoengineering to alter the climate, the absence of trustworthy technologies able to remove CO2 from the air, the threat posed by tropical forests that have now become carbon emission sources, and the highly negative effects due to some EU countries retaining coal as a key source of energy. It also features an assessment of the threat for the next five years, predicting an increase in climate risks. Louise van Schaik contributed to this radar as expert in this field.

Our latest Migration Radar (Q4 2017) found four key upcoming trends pertaining to EU security: the absence of long-term EU-wide migration policies, destabilisation of strategic regions, chronic uncertainty around the EU-Turkey deal and the absence consideration of positive effects of migration. It also features an assessment of the trend for the next five years, predicting an increase in migratory pressures to the EU. Fransje Molenaar and Ana Uzelac contributed to this radar as experts in this field.

Our latest CBRN Radar (Q4 2017) found three key upcoming threats pertaining to EU security: the lowering of the nuclear threshold as states develop smaller nuclear weapons, the inadequately controlled roll-out of biotechnology tools and the lowering of the normative standards concerning the use of chemical weapons. It also features an assessment of the threat for the next five years, predicting a decrease of nuclear- and chemical stockpiles, albeit with the ongoing modernisation of nuclear arsenals. Sico van der Meer contributed to this radar as expert in this field.

Our latest Free Trade Radar (Q4 2017) found four key upcoming threats pertaining to EU security: the deadlock at the WTO dispute settlement body, Chinese industrial policies and the EU´s responses, consequences of US protectionism and a growing popular resentment against free trade. It also features an assessment of the threats for the next five years, predicting an increase in threats to free trade. Maaike Okano-Heijmans contributed to this radar as expert in this field.

For more information, contact our Clingendael Strategic Foresight Team.