Europe in the World

State of the union 2022: War in Europe and its aftershocks
28 Sep 2022 09:00 - 16:45

Clingendael's annual State of the Union Conference will be streamed live on YouTube

'War in Europe and its aftershocks'

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially led to a strong resolve and unity within the EU and NATO, leading both organisations to take unprecedented decisions on security, sanctions, defence, and enlargement.

However, as the war drags on, the EU is starting to feel the effects of slower growth, rising food and energy prices, and the humanitarian crisis that is forcing millions of Ukrainian citizens to leave the country. The question is to what extent and how European and Transatlantic unity and resolve will be able to withstand these pressures – or if new cracks will appear.

With no short-term end to the war in sight, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael, in cooperation with the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Netherlands Ministry of Defence, dedicates this year’s edition of the State of the Union Conference to the aftershocks of the Russia-Ukraine war.

On 28 September 2022 Clingendael reflects on the medium and long-term consequences of the war for the European Union and its Member States, the EU’s neighbourhood, NATO, and the future of the United States’ engagement in European security.


All times are Central European Time.

09:00    Welcome and opening by Monika Sie Dhian Ho, General Director of the Clingendael Institute

09:05    Keynote speeches by

  • Marisa Gerards, Director General Policy at the Netherlands Ministry of Defence
  • Gerald Knaus, Founding Chairman at the European Stability Initiative (ESI)
  • Moderator: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

09:45    Present at the occasion: reflections on Europe and the world

  • Tom de Bruijn, Outgoing Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Clingendael Institute and former Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation of the Netherlands
  • Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, former Chair Advisory Council for International Affairs, former Secretary General of NATO and former Minister of Foreign Affairs
  • Moderator: Louise van Schaik, Head of the Europe and Global Affairs Unit of the Clingendael Institute

10:15    Panel ‘After waking up, what implications for European defence?’

  • Marc Thys, Deputy Chief of the Belgian Defence
  • Jean Pierre van Aubel, Defence Policy and Strategy at the European External Action Service (EEAS)
  • Barbara Kunz, Senior Researcher at Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik
  • Moderator: Dick Zandee, Head Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute

11:15     Coffee break

11:45     Panel ‘EU enlargement: strategic choices at stake’

  • Donika Emini, Executive Director at CiviKos Platform
  • Alyona Getmanchuk, Founder and Director of the New Europe Center
  • Wouter Zweers, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute
  • Moderator: Sophie Derkzen, Journalist at Foreign Desk (VPRO Bureau Buitenland)

12:45     Lunch break

13:30     ‘What if not that temporary?’, Scenarios for the protection of Ukrainian refugees in Europe,

  • Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow & Coordinator Russia & Eastern Europe Centre at the Clingendael Institute
  • Monika Sie Dhian Ho, General Director of the Clingendael Institute
  • Moderator: Niels Drost, Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

13:50     Panel ‘This time we are ‘the region’: dealing with the migration aftershocks of the war’

  • Vladimír Šimoňák, Head of the Crisis Management Unit at the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs
  • Karlijn Rensink, Counsellor Asylum and Migration at Permanent Representation of the Netherlands to the EU
  • Mariia Shaidrova, Chair OPORA Foundation (formerly DPU, Displaced People Unit)
  • Moderator: Monika Sie Dhian Ho, General Director of the Clingendael Institute

14:50     Tea break

15:20     ‘Back to the future’: lessons for a new Russia strategy with keynote speeches by 

  • Sergey Radchenko, Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
  • Edward Lucas, Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

              Followed by a panel with

  • Erica Schouten, Deputy Director General for Political Affairs at the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
  • Geert Jan Hahn, Journalist at BNR Nieuwsradio
  • Tony van der Togt, Senior Associate Fellow of the Clingendael Institute
  • Moderator: Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

16:30     Closing speech by Lodewijk Asscher, Special Advisor for Ukraine at the European Commission

16:45     Drinks