Strategic Foresight

Reports and papers

Strategic Monitor 2017 - CBRN weapons

27 Feb 2017 - 15:59
Source: Ministry of Defence

The risk that chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons will be deployed seems low at first glance, in view of the small number of incidents with these weapons in the past. However, if such an incident does occur, it could have major consequences. This study attempts, on the basis of a number of selected indicators, to create a threat assessment for the coming five years (2016-2021). The conclusion is that a small but worrying increasing in threats stemming from CBRN weapons may be expected. In particular, the tensions between major powers, the threatened breakdown of the multilateral non-proliferation and disarmament system and the growing threat of non-state actors play a role in this. In addition, this analysis considers the extent to which positive or negative developments in international cooperation can be expected in the coming five years.