Strategic Foresight

Reports and papers

Migration and Security

07 Feb 2019 - 13:27
Source: Photo Unit UNHCR/flickr

This report is part of our Strategic Monitor 2018 - 2019, which monitors the international system and assesses risks to Dutch national security. The Dutch version of the synthesis report Interregnum was published in February 2019. The English version of this synthesis report is expected in March 2019.

The issue of migration continues to remain divisive in both European discourse and policy. In this research paper author Ana Uzelac focuses on three key developments related to migration that will pose the greatest threat in the coming years: the inability of the European Union to design and implement effective migration management policies, both internally and abroad, the failure to improve and maintain societal cohesion between the two largest migrant groups (Turks and Moroccans), and the continuous use of migration as a discursive tool for polarization.

She also looks at the four key developments related to migration that pose the greatest threat to the international order in the coming years:

  • The inability of the European Union to design and implement a reform of the Common European Asylum System CEAS);
  • Migration management policies based on erroneous assumptions and securitization narratives:
  • The disruptive role of the United States, and:
  • The unceasing migratory flows driven by poverty, poor governance, climate change, and conflict.